Quality foe, neutral field might work against Irish
Good special teams to benefit Syracuse
One needs only to look at the advance national championship lines to discern the difference between Notre Dame and such teams as Alabama, Clemson and Michigan.
Notre Dame, at home, beat Michigan in the season opener for both teams that doubled as quarterback Shea Patterson’s debut with the Wolverines. But as of earlier this week, one offshore sports book listed Alabama as a 20½-point favorite over the Fighting Irish and a 14-point favorite over Michigan.
Notre Dame is a balanced team thanks to improved quarterback play by Ian Book. But the Irish have played four one-possession games, narrowly escaping another against Northwestern. The rest of the schedule has included teams with four to eight losses.
Syracuse has lost two games — to Atlantic Coast Conference division leaders Clemson and Pittsburgh — by a combined 11 points. Saturday’s game takes place in a strange venue at Yankee Stadium. Syracuse is No. 1 in the nation in special teams, per S&P+ ratings, and Orange coach Dino Babers is 8-3 against the spread as an underdog away from the Carrier Dome.
I like Syracuse plus 10½ in this game. Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
The forecast calls for a wind chill below 20 degrees at kickoff, with winds in the 15-to-20 mph range. Nebraska’s offense has helped it win three of four with a competitive loss at Ohio State. However, Michigan State is built to play
Michigan State (-1) over NEBRASKA:
in inhospitable conditions on the road. The Spartans’ run defense ranks second in S&P+ and first in stuff rate. It does not give up big plays in the passing game. By contrast, Nebraska is 94th in S&P+ rush defense. The Cornhuskers allow opposing rushing attacks to be efficient and explosive. In a game dictated by conditions, I like the Spartans.
Middle Tennessee has not played well against Southeastern Conference opponents. But it’s
9-1 in its past 10 games against nonsec
Middle Tennessee State (+16) over KENTUCKY:
teams and 4-1 ATS in its past five. QB Brent Stockstill has 11,249 career passing yards and won’t be intimidated by Kentucky’s defense. The Wildcats haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game since Sept. 29, and I don’t trust this team laying two scores or more. Kentucky has lost three of its past five games, with escapes against Vanderbilt (14-7) and Missouri (15-14). I don’t think the Wildcats will be motivated in what could be a real slog.
I never thought UCF would be undervalued while riding a 22-game winning streak, but I think it is here. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in games with a spread under double digits during the streak. And, based on analytics and scouting, UCF is better in all three phases. Sure, the Knights haven’t played a tough schedule, but it has been tougher than the one Cincinnati has faced. I don’t think the Bearcats have the offense to keep up with UCF or the defense to shut it down.
QB Cole Mcdonald and WR John Ursua captivated college football early this season as Hawaii reinstituted the runand-shoot offense. The team started 6-1 before losing four consecutive games, and is 1-8 ATS since Week 2. But Hawaii’s schedule was almost criminal as it played 11 consecutive weeks before a bye. And games 4-11 ping-ponged between the islands and the mainland, starting with a trip to New York. The past four games, Hawaii played BYU at altitude, hosted an improved UNR team and then played Mountain West front-runners Fresno State and Utah State. Now off a bye, Hawaii hosts a bad UNLV team that just upset San Diego State.
Last week: 1-2-2 ATS
Season: 25-24-6
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
UCF (-7) over Cincinnati: HAWAII (-6½) over UNLV:
The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall provides the Review-journal with NFL tech notes and trends from Goldsheet.com:
Carolina (-4½ ,49 )at Detroit: The Panthers are 5-0 against the spread following their last five losses. The
Lions are on an 0-3 ATS skid. Carolina is on a 7-3 over uptick. Edge: Panthers and slight to over.
Dallas at Atlanta (-3½, 49): Dallas is 2-3 ATS on the road this season after going 5-2-1 ATS in away games last year. The Falcons are on a
4-1 over run at home but the Cowboys are on an 8-1 under streak on the road. Edge: Under and slight to Falcons.
Cincinnati at Baltimore (Off): Both teams are slumping ATS, with the Bengals on an
0-4 skid and the Ravens an
0-3 downturn. Cincinnati has covered three of the last four meetings at Baltimore, which is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 home games. The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and the Ravens are on a 6-3 under run.
slight to Bengals and under.
The Vikings are on a 3-1-2 cover streak, though the Bears have covered five of their last six games at Soldier Field. Minnesota is on a 7-3 over run on the road. Edge: slight to over.
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-8, 56½): The Eagles are on a 3-8-1 ATS slide in the regular season but are on a 12-7 cover run as underdogs. However, the Saints are on an eight-game win streak and a 7-0 cover run. New Orleans has gone over in seven of its last nine home games and Philadelphia is on a 5-0 over run on the road. Over and Saints.
The Titans are
6-1 ATS as underdogs this season. With Andrew Luck at quarterback for the Colts, Tennessee is on a 1-6-1 ATS slide in the series. Indianapolis has covered its last three games. With Luck under center, the Colts are on a 16-10 over streak. Edge: slight to Colts and over.
Houston (-3, 42½) at Washington: The Texans have won six straight games and covered their last three. But the Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Houston is on an 8-3 under streak and Washington is on a 10-3 under run. Edge: Under.
Tampa Bay at New
York Giants (-1½, 53): The Buccaneers are 1-6 straight up and ATS in their last seven games. But the Giants are on an 0-4 spread skid at home. Tampa Bay is on an 8-2 over run. Edge: slight to over.
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46): The Broncos have covered their last two away games and three of their last four overall. But they’re still 3-9 ATS on the road since last year and on a 5-15-1
ATS slide overall. Denver has covered only one of the last five meetings. The Broncos are on a 9-4 under streak and the Chargers are on a 13-6 under run. Edge: Chargers and under.
Oakland at Arizona (-5½, 41): The Raiders are 2-7 ATS this season and on an extended 4-16-3 spread slide. Oakland is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Cardinals are 5-1-1 vs. the line in their last seven games. The Raiders are on a 13-3 under run and Arizona is on a 9-4 under streak.
Under and Cards. at Jacksonville: The Jaguars beat the Steelers twice last season at Heinz Field. But Jacksonville is on a five-game losing streak and 0-5 spread slide, while Pittsburgh has won and covered its last five games. The Steelers are on an 8-3 over streak. Steelers and over.
The Chiefs have the NFL’S best spread record this season at 8-2. The Rams are on a 4-8-1 ATS skid. Edge: slight to Chiefs.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet. com).