No reason to think Irish will slip up against USC
Notre Dame victory clinches playoff spot
Notre Dame (11-0) needs to beat
USC (5-5) to make the College Football Playoff and complete a perfect regular season.
Considering how the Fighting Irish performed against Northwestern and Syracuse the last two weeks, that shouldn’t be a problem. Notre Dame, an 11-point favorite, is a wellcoached team with a smothering defense and a balanced offense that rarely makes mistakes.
USC has lost four of five, including an embarrassing, self-inflicted 15-14 defeat to California that was an indictment of the coaching staff. Speculation about Clay Helton’s job status is swirling, which has to be distracting. The Trojans can’t run on offense, and that will set up a lot of third-and-long situations against the Irish’s No. 8 passing defense, per the S&P+ ratings.
USC athletic director Lynn Swann did not hire Helton, whose days may be numbered, especially if the Trojans don’t qualify for a bowl game.
Notre Dame can’t afford a loss, since it does not play in a conference championship game, and also needs to play well to ensure it avoids a CFP semifinal matchup against Alabama.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS): For all the Volunteers have accomplished this season, the Commodores still are favored. That says something about the state in which Butch Jones left the program. Vanderbilt is going for three consecutive wins over Tennessee for the first time since 1926. The Commodores came so close to beating Notre Dame, Kentucky and Missouri, and led Florida 21-3 before Ke’shawn Vaughn got hurt. Vaughn qui-
VANDERBILT (-3) over Tennessee:
etly has been excellent this year, rushing for 976 yards on an outstanding 7.1 yards per carry in the Southeastern Conference. Vanderbilt’s balanced offense will put up points, and its pass defense can slow down Tennessee.
The Cardinals are not only 1-10 ATS, they have failed to cover by an average of 17 points per game. Those banking on some life from Louisville after Bobby Petrino’s firing were hit with a 52-10 loss to North Carolina State last week. Now an angry Kentucky team on a late-season swoon is looking for revenge for last year’s 44-17 Louisville win. This is a lot of points for Kentucky’s mediocre offense, but it’s also the last chance to fade one of the worst ATS teams in recent memory. Plus, Benny Snell should have a field day against a gosh-awful Louisville run defense. Miami’s defensive line is very good at getting into opposing backfields. The Hurricanes are capable of slowing down Pittsburgh’s running game. This is also an awful spot for the Panthers, who already have clinched a spot in next week’s Atlantic Coast Conference title
Kentucky (-17) over LOUISVILLE: MIAMI (-5) over Pittsburgh:
game against Clemson. Miami finally has stopped playing musical chairs at quarterback, and N’kosi Perry is starting to play better. With all due respect to Pittsburgh for a great season, it can’t match up athletically with Miami. The Hurricanes were overrated to start the season, but now they’re undervalued. The Utes have clinched the Pac-12 South and will advance to play a short-week championship game against the Apple Cup winner on Friday. It’s fair to wonder whether we’ll see Utah’s best effort in the Holy War. Keep in mind that QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss are already out for the season, and that BYU is No. 1 in the FBS in defending against explosive plays. These teams do not play at a fast pace, which gives further value to the Cougars. Also, 19 of the past 24 meetings have been decided by one possession.
3-2 ATS
28-26-6
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
Brigham Young (+11½) over UTAH: Last week: Season:
The Raiders are 3-7 ATS this season and on an extended 5-16-3 spread slide. Oakland is on a 13-4 under run and the Ravens are on an 8-5 under surge. Edge: Ravens and under.
San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3, 54): The Buccaneers are on a 1-7 spread skid this season. They’re also 0-3 ATS as favorites this year and on an extended 3-15 ATS slide as chalk. Tampa Bay is riding a
9-2 over uptick. Edge: 49ers and over.
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-5½, 47): The Giants are 1-3 vs. the line in their last four games at Philadelphia. However, New York has covered its last four road games this season. The Eagles are on a 3-9-1 spread slide in the regular season and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven regular season home games. Edge: Giants.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3, 46½): The Bengals are on an 0-3 spread skid at home. But Marvin Lewis has owned the Browns, winning and covering each of the last seven meetings by double digits. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Edge: Bengals and under.
New England (-10, 47) at New York Jets: The Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last six away games and are on an 0-5 spread skid at New York. The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in the last ten meetings. But they’re on a four-game losing streak this season straight up and ATS. Edge: slight to Jets.
Seattle at Carolina (-3½, 46½): The Seahawks are riding a 4-1-1 ATS streak and have covered their last three away from home. Seattle also is
3-1 ATS as an underdog this year as part of an extended 24-11-3 cover run in that role. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS at home this year but are on a
3-4 spread skid overall. Edge: Seahawks.
Miami at Indianapolis (-7½, 51): The Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Miami also is on a 1-9 spread slide on the road. The under is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last six away games. The Colts have won their last four games this season while going 3-0-1 ATS. Edge: Colts and slight to under.
Arizona at Los Angeles Chargers (-13, 44): The Cardinals are riding a 5-2-1 cover run and a 9-5 under streak. The Chargers are on a 5-1 under uptick. Edge: Under and slight to Cardinals.
at Denver: The Broncos are 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten home games. Denver is on a 10-4 under streak. The Steelers have won and covered five of their last six games. Pittsburgh is on an 8-4 over run. Edge: Steelers.
The Packers have lost seven straight road games while going 1-5-1 ATS. Green Bay is 0-2 SU and ATS in its last two visits to Minnesota. The Packers are riding a 12-6 over uptick. Edge: Vikings and slight to over.
The Titans are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this season. However, the Texans are riding a seven-game win streak and have covered three of their last four. They’ve also won and covered their last four meetings with the Titans at home. Tennessee is on an 11-5 under run. Edge: Under and slight to Texans.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet. com).