Karlsson seals role as complete player
Goals down, but defensive exploits reveal efficiency
The Review-journal presents its “Roster Review” series, which will examine each Golden Knights player’s current production and future outlook in alphabetical order. Sunday: Robin Lehner.
Background
William Karlsson got exactly what he wanted in the offseason.
He received an eight-year contract from the Knights that maximized his security. He sacrificed his potential earnings — his $5.9 million cap hit is tied for 37th highest among skaters who played center this season — but said he didn’t care.
“The decision I made to negotiate this year and maybe not get as much as on an open market, it was an easy decision,” Karlsson said after signing the deal.
Karlsson’s priority was always to stay with the team that transformed him from an overlooked talent into a star. Once he did, it was up to him to live up to his contract.
Performance
Karlsson’s output, on the surface, might seem disappointing. His 15 goals rank far behind his 43 in 2017-18 and 24 last season. His shooting percentage (10.9) is below his career average (13.8).
Yet the 27-year-old Swede’s scoring provides barely a fraction of his value to the Knights.
Karlsson is a rare breed as a fast, skilled top-six center who also provides Selke Trophy-level
defense. There’s a reason he often matches up with opposing top lines and is a top-notch penalty killer. He’s just as willing to use his speed to score as defend.
That makes him an invaluable cog in the Knights’ machine. The team has outscored opponents 43-37 with Karlsson on the ice at five-on-five, meaning he’s winning his matchup more often than not. That makes every other line’s job easier.
Factor in his special teams work, his passing and, yes, his scoring, and his contract begins to look like a bargain. Twenty-three of the 36 centers with a higher cap hit than Karlsson have scored more points per game.
But only six have a better plus-minus than his plus-11.
The Knights will gladly take that all-around performance for another seven seasons.
“As long as I’m contributing, I feel good,” Karlsson said in February. “It’s not rocket science. It’s hockey. It’s unfortunate that the goals haven’t been there, but assists are part of goals, and as long as I’m scoring points, that’s good. I think the part about (not scoring goals) is more mental, like everything in sports.
“I don’t think it has affected my overall game.”
Future
The vexing question with Karlsson remains how much better he can get.
His 43-goal season remains a career outlier. But if he can raise his offense a little without sacrificing defense, he could be an Allstar.
He also could start adding to his trophy collection. Karlsson won the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy for the most gentlemanly player in 2018 but also received Selke votes the past two seasons.
Now that he’s subtly improved on faceoffs — his 51.9 winning percentage is a major improvement over his previous career-best
48.8 — there’s no reason he shouldn’t be a finalist over the life of his contract.
Contact Ben Gotz at bgotz@reviewjournal. com. Follow @Bensgotz on Twitter.