Outside N.Y., infection rate climbing

As state lockdowns ease, study says virus growing

Take the New York metropolitan area’s progress against the coronavirus out of the equation, and the numbers show the rest of the country is moving in the wrong direction, with the known infection rate rising even as states move to lift their lockdowns, an Associated Press analysis found Tuesday.

New confirmed infections per day in the U.S. exceed 20,000, and deaths per day are well over 1,000, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. And public health officials warn that the failure to flatten the curve and drive down the infection rate in places could lead to many more deaths — perhaps tens of thousands — as people are allowed to venture out and businesses reopen.

“Make no mistakes: This virus is still circulating in our community, perhaps even more now than in previous weeks” said Linda Ochs, director of the Health Department in hard-hit Shawnee County, Kansas.

The New York metropolitan area, consisting of about 20 million people across a region that encompasses the city’s northern suburbs, Long Island and northern New Jersey, has been the hardest-hit corner of the country, accounting for at least one-third of the nation’s 70,000 deaths.

When the still locked-down metropolitan area is included, new infections in the U.S. appear to be declining, according to the AP analysis. But subtracting the New York metropolitan area from the analysis changes the story. Without it, the rate of new cases in the U.S. increased over the same period from 6.2 per 100,000 people to 7.5.

Testing for the virus in the U.S. has been expanded, but that doesn’t explain the entire increase, said Dr. Zuo-feng Zhang, a public health researcher at the University of California at Los Angeles.

“This increase is not because of testing. It’s a real increase,” he said.

Pockets of America far from New York City are seeing ominous trends.

Deaths in Iowa surged to a new daily high of 19 on Tuesday, and 730 workers at a single Tyson Foods pork plant tested positive. On Monday, Shawnee County, home to Topeka, Kansas, reported a doubling of cases from last week on the same day that business restrictions began to ease.

Gallup, New Mexico, is under a strict lockdown until Thursday because of an outbreak, with guarded roadblocks to prevent travel in and out the town and a ban on more than two people in a vehicle.

Zhang said it worries him that the rate of new cases is increasing at the same time some states are easing up: “We’re one country. If we’re not moving in the same step, we’re going to have a problem.”

In other developments:

North Carolina’s stay-at-home restrictions are being eased starting Friday. Gov. Roy Cooper signed an executive order on Tuesday. His administration said COVID-19 cases are generally stable, and testing, tracing and health care supplies have improved enough to warrant increased commerce and movement.

Gov. Greg Abbott is giving Texas hair and nail salons permission to reopen this week. Gyms will be allowed to reopen later this month.

Pennsylvania has reported another 554 coronavirus deaths to pass 3,000 total, while Gov. Tom Wolf said he is not committing to a particular schedule to lift stay-at-home pandemic restrictions in the state’s counties or regions.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown has announced a limited opening of some state parks, outdoor recreation facilities, and other areas for day use in a partial easing of restrictions put in place because of the coronavirus.

Missouri is moving ahead with plans to execute a convicted killer May 19, unlike other states that have postponed executions during the coronavirus pandemic.