Trump must remember that it’s not 1968

IT was in 1968 — in the aftermath of the riots triggered by the murder of Martin Luther King Jr.; in the aftermath of a Democratic convention during which the Chicago police took on 10,000 anti-war protestors and three of the nation’s best-known television anchors were assaulted by police on the convention floor; and in response to the third-party candidacy of segregationist Gov. George Wallace — that Richard Nixon adopted “law and order” as the message of his campaign. It was a key element of his “Southern strategy,” the year the white South began the migration from the Democratic column to the Republicans.

And it was in 1988 that then-vice President George H.W. Bush’s presidential campaign manager, Lee Atwater, told reporters that he would make William Horton, a mean-looking Black man (at least mean-looking in his mug shot) who had raped a woman while on prison release under a furlough program into Bush’s opponent’s vice presidential candidate.

So it should come as no surprise that President Donald Trump, cratering in the polls, should turn to “law and order.” At a time when the country has come together, rather stunningly, to begin the painful process of reckoning with the racial divide, Trump’s campaign is trying to play the race card in a desperate effort to hold on. There was some looting by thugs who took advantage of the opportunity that protests provide. It happened down the street from where I lived.

But it is not 1968 — even though Trump is doing his best to make it look that way. And it is not 1988.

If you look at videos from 1968 from a distance, it almost looks like Portland, Oregon. But only from a distance.

In 2020, the protesters aren’t poor Blacks. They aren’t hippies with long hair. They are overwhelmingly white. The Portland mayor (unlike then-mayor Richard Daley in Chicago) is not directing the assault on protestors; he’s one of the protestors, and Trump’s troops directed their tear gas at him. Look closer and the differences are clear.

Even more important, this country is a different place than it was in 1988, when Willie Horton worked so well for Bush. In 1988, 85 percent of the voters were white, 10 percent were Black and 3 percent were Hispanic. In 2016, the number of white voters as a percentage of the total was down 15 points. Blacks were 12 percent. Hispanics had jumped to 11 percent, with Asians and Other totaling 7 percent. In 2012, Black turnout was even higher.

America is in a different place socially and politically than it was for past players of the race card. And there aren’t enough white male voters for the old strategy to succeed.

Trump has said in the past that his base would stick with him even if he were to commit murder on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan. He may be right: While nearly 2 out of 3 Americans believe everyone should be required to wear face masks in public, a rather astounding 36 percent still approve of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and 32 percent approve of his handling of race relations. That is Trump’s base.

It isn’t big enough.

Susan Estrich is a USC law professor and liberal activist.