Election of ’20 produces copious vote quantities
Turnout rates could be highest seen since 1908
More than 22 million Americans have already cast ballots in the
2020 election, a record-shattering avalanche of early votes driven by a pandemic that has transformed the way the nation votes.
The 22.2 million ballots submitted as of Friday night represents 16 percent of all the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election, even as eight states are not yet reporting their totals and voters still have more than two weeks to cast ballots.
Americans’ rush to vote is leading election experts to predict that a record 150 million votes may be cast and turnout rates could be higher than in any presidential election since 1908.
“It’s crazy,” said Michael Mcdonald, a University of Florida political scientist who has long tracked voting for his site Electproject.org. Mcdonald’s analysis shows that roughly 10 times as many people have voted compared with the number at this point in 2016.
“We can be certain this will be a high-turnout election,” Mcdonald said.
So far, the turnout has been lopsided, with Democrats outvoting Republicans by a 2-1 ratio in the 42 states included in the count by The Associated Press.
That gives Democrats a tactical advantage in the final stretch of the campaign. In many critical battleground states, Democrats have “banked” a chunk of their voters and can turn their time and money toward harder-to-find infrequent voters.
But it does not necessarily mean that Democrats will lead in votes by the time ballots are counted. Both parties anticipate a swell of Republican votes on Election Day that could, in a matter of hours, dramatically shift the dynamic.
“The Republican numbers are going to pick up,” said GOP pollster John Couvillon. “The question is at what velocity and when.”
Trump’s campaign and party are encouraging their own voters to cast ballots by mail or early and in-person. The campaign, which has been sending volunteers and staffers into the field for months, touts a swell in voter registration in key swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania.
In-person early voting began this week in several major states and also broke records, particularly in crowded, Democratic-leaning metropolitan areas.
The obvious enthusiasm among Democrats has cheered party operatives, but they note that it’s hard to tell which way turnout will eventually fall. Republicans may be just as motivated, but saving themselves for Election Day.
“High turnout can benefit either side,” Democratic data strategist
Tom Bonier said. “It just depends.”