Gamblers who took over on Raiders nervous
Those who took over nervous now after good start
On the surface, the Raiders’ season finale against the Broncos is meaningless with both teams eliminated from the playoffs.
But Sunday’s game will be very meaningful to bettors who wagered on Las Vegas’ 2020 season win total, which was 7½ and will be decided at Denver.
Gamblers who bet on the Raiders (7-8) to go over their win total had to like their chances in November after they beat the Broncos 37-12 to improve to 6-3.
But they have since made those bettors sweat during a 1-5 slide, with the only win coming against the Jets on Derek Carr’s 46-yard touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs with five seconds left.
The good news for over gamblers is that sharp bettors expect the Raiders to defeat Denver. The Raiders opened as a 1½-point underdog at Circa before the sportsbook reported taking several bets from sharps on the Raiders to push their line to -3.
The Raiders are 2½-point favorites at every other Las Vegas book, and the total is 51.
“I understand the line move. I think the Raiders have something to prove,” Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “I would think the Raiders want to at least close the season with a good taste in their mouth and finish 8-8; 7-9 would be just crazy from where they were.
“I expect the Raiders to have a grade A effort and go all out to win this game.”
The Raiders have gone over the total in four straight games and are the NFL’S top over team with an 11-3-1 over-under mark. Denver has gone over in two of its past three games but went under in Sunday’s 19-16 loss at the Chargers.
“Denver has got all kinds of issues at cornerback,” Salmons said. “Denver’s quarterback play has just been awful.”
Props in play
The Westgate posted Raiders player props in May, and most of those have gone over, including Carr’s passing yards (3,199½) and TD passes (17½) as he’s thrown for 3,732 yards and 25 TDS. Carr has thrown seven interceptions and needs to avoid two Sunday to stay under 8½.
Other over winners include Darren Waller, who flew over his receptions (69½) with 98 and receiving yards (799½) with 1,079; Nelson Agholor, who more than doubled his receptions (37½) with 78 and receiving yards (399½) with 839; and Hunter Renfrow, who surpassed his receptions (47½) with 53 and receiving yards (549½) with 632.
Josh Jacobs topped his TDS (7½) with 10 but will need to run for 174 yards to eclipse his rushing yards (1,149½), which are at 976.
Ruggs will go under his receptions (45½) and receiving yards (699½) as the rookie has 23 catches for 414 yards.
Maxx Crosby surpassed 5½ sacks with six while Clelin Ferrell is under 5½ sacks with two.
Not about the wins
The Raiders’ win total won’t be a big decision for the books, according to the Westgate, William Hill and Circa.
“This was a very unusual year for booking the season win totals and playoff props,” Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said. “We normally get a ton of tourist action on those props in the NFL and we would normally be pretty big against the Raiders.
“This year, it was mostly just arbitrage players and wise guys betting our numbers to other shops in town. Not much public action in those markets.”
William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said the book did extremely well on the Raiders’ exact-number-of-wins prop.
“We wrote a lot of business on that. We had a lot of liability on the bigger numbers but we didn’t have to sweat it,” he said. “They had a tough schedule. They made some strides. They’ll definitely be a playoff team next year, and there will be fans in the stadium next year.
“There are plenty of good pieces in place. All in all, it was a positive step.”