Payout may be small, but Gonzaga is the bet in NCAA Tournament futures
While sports betting volume as a whole hasn’t fallen off much during pandemic times in Nevada, gambling in future markets has seen a precipitous drop.
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook struggled to attract even half of its usual handle in bets to win the Super Bowl and College Football Playoff last season, and the story is similar going into this week’s start of the NCAA Tournament.
“The numbers are way down,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of the Superbook. “It’s one thing that’s really hurt us from the regular tourists not being here. People come here and bet a lot of futures and on their favorite teams, and they’re just not able to do that this year.”
As far as college basketball, it also probably doesn’t help that there’s one team looming so far above the rest. Recreational bettors predominantly bet on futures hoping to turn a small amount into a big score, but the prospect feels farfetched this year given the gap between undefeated Gonzaga and the rest of college basketball.
The Superbook maintained the Bulldogs as +180 (risking $1 to win $1.80) favorites to win the title after the 68-team field was announced Sunday afternoon. That puts Gonzaga tied as the second biggest favorite going into the tournament over the last 20 years.
The only team offered at lower odds on Selection Sunday was 2014-2015 Kentucky, which was even money before ultimately losing in the Final Four to Wisconsin. Like this year’s Gonzaga, Kentucky’s 2012 squad went into the tournament at +180.
The Wildcats ultimately cut down the nets that year, and the Bulldogs just might be following in their footsteps. Yes, the futures tentativeness just might be bankroll-preservation because there’s no reason to bet against the Zags this year.
If anything, gamblers should be betting on them. It might be a low price, but it’s not low enough.
At least not everywhere. The Superbook, in fairness, is pretty close to capturing Gonzaga’s true probability of winning the tournament.
A bettor needs to believe Gonzaga wins the tournament 36% of the time or more to make +180 a good wager. With their resume and the data from the season so far, Gonzaga’s true likelihood may be pushing somewhere closer to 40%.
That’s a relatively small edge against the Superbook number but do some shopping and better prices are available. BETMGM, for instance, still has Gonzaga at +250 in the futures market.
Gonzaga at +250 is a no-brainer and quite possibly the best tournament bet to be made locally at the moment.
The market hasn’t gone far enough in quantifying Gonzaga’s advantage over every other team. It’s historic, as any set of efficiency ratings would attest.
Let’s just go with the most popular option in kenpom.com, which has Gonzaga six points better than any other team in college basketball. That’s the largest margin in the history of the web site, which dates to 2002.
Gonzaga is coming off what some are calling the worst game of its season in the West Coast Conference tournament championship game at Orleans Arena, where it still beat BYU 88-78 as 14-point favorites. The Zags have only seen one game decided by less than double digits all season — an 87-82 win over West Virginia in December at the Jimmy V Classic in Indianapolis.
There are a lot of concerns about Gonzaga’s strength of schedule coming out of a mid-major conference, but they’re overblown considering West Virginia is just one of four nonconference wins against teams seeded No. 4 or better. Gonzaga also easily dispatched No. 2 seed Iowa, No. 3 seed Kansas and No. 4 seed Virginia, the de facto defending national champions.
In fairness, Gonzaga is getting plenty of support. The Superbook actually has a small liability on it winning the championship — largely dating to its opening price of 14-to-1 a year ago — but nothing it can’t manage throughout the tournament.
William Hill, which runs the most sports books in the state, listed Gonzaga as the team that had drawn the second-most action to win the title earlier this month. Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill’s director of trading, reported a Gonzaga tournament win would still be a positive result for the house though.
The team he and many other bookmakers are worried about is the one right below Gonzaga in the odds, No. 1 seed Michigan, which goes into the tournament at 8-to-1 at the Superbook. William Hill would lose “really bad” if Michigan prevails, and so would the Superbook.
Kornegay said his shop had taken a $1,000 bet on Michigan at 100-to-1 earlier in the season and another $3,000 wager at 80-to-1.
If they each won their first four games, Gonzaga and Michigan would meet in the national semifinals. But the Bulldogs would be a sizable favorite — probably giving more than 6 points — over the Wolverines, especially with the latter expected to be missing one of its best players.
Michigan senior guard Isaiah Livers went down with a foot injury in the Big Ten Tournament and is not expected to play the rest of the postseason.
One stroke of bad luck like losing Livers or off-night like Gonzaga experienced in the Elite 8 against Texas Tech in the 2019 NCA A Tournament can change everything in the single-elimination event.
It’s the reason why March Madness is so beloved. It’s the reason why Gonzaga, despite its dominance this season, is no lock to win the first national title in school history.
But the Zags certainly appear to have a better chance than the odds are currently giving them. With that discrepancy in mind, don’t forsake what’s traditionally been one of the most popular ways to wager on the tournament.
Don’t be afraid to bet futures in what’s been a top-heavy college basketball season. Just be afraid to bet futures against the team that’s made this college basketball season so top-heavy.