Determining success difficult task
COVID-19, no fans help create barren landscape for growth, progress
TOKYO — Will it be a success? A failure? Or none of the above?
It will take something much more nuanced than those basic notions to assess the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics when they wrap up in two weeks. The response will be twisted by dozens of parties with their own interests.
There’s the International Olympic Committee. The 11,000 athletes. The Japanese organizing committee. The Japanese public. The absent fans.
And how about the sponsors? Or the Japanese government and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. There is the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and Governor Yuriko Koike, who has higher political aspirations. The Tokyo medical community. And television rights holders like American television network NBC.
Just getting through it will be cast as a success by many. This may be the spin no matter what happens, particularly for the IOC, its broadcast partners and Japanese media. A half-dozen newspapers in Japan are domestic sponsors and have a vested interest in portraying the Games positively.
The more the focus is on the sports — and off politics, costs, corruption and COVID-19 — the better it is for the Switzerland-based IOC.
Pushing on with the Olympics after the postponement — and during the pandemic — has hurt the IOC’S reputation in Japan. Kaori Yamaguchi, a former bronze medalist and a member of the Japanese Olympic Committee, said a few months ago that she was shocked to find the IOC operated primarily as an “entertainment” business.
The IOC generates almost 75 percent of its income from the sale of broadcast rights. Another 18 percent is from sponsors. Estimates suggest that canceling the Tokyo Olympics might have cost the IOC $3 billion to $4 billion. About 40 percent of the IOC’S total income is from one source — NBC.
“The focus (now) is on the field of play, on the athletes where we always feel it should be,” Kit Mcconnell, the IOC’S sports director, said Sunday after the first full day of competition.
The IOC also needs the focus to be off COVID. The Japanese public has been conditioned to expect some positive cases, and they are likely to accept this inevitability if all events are held and wrap up with medal ceremonies. Canceled events and unclaimed medals will be difficult to dismiss.
“It that happens, that would be a negative blow for the public, for the IOC, and everybody else,” said Kazuto Suzuki, a political scientist at Tokyo University.
The biggest winner if the Olympics are portrayed positively will be Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, whose ruling LDP party faces a general election this fall. Suga’s approval ratings keep dropping, tied to Japan’s slow rollout of vaccines and to his unpopular decision to barrel ahead with the Olympics despite opinion polls showing many Japanese opposed.
Suga’s advantage is the ruling party’s weak opposition. The LDP has ruled Japan almost continuously since the end of World War II.
Seiko Hashimoto, the president of the organizing committee, has repeatedly said the Olympics will be successful if they are “safe and secure.” Pressed to elaborate, she has been unable to specify exactly what that means.
But it’s difficult to see how the Olympics can be portrayed as a success for the average Japanese. Fans are barred from all but a few outlying venues, and they’re being told to stay home and watch what is now an entirely made-for-tv Olympics.
The chaotic runup to the Olympics has also exposed corruption, misogyny and bullying in Japan, undermining success even before the Games began.
Tsunekazu Takeda, who headed the Japanese Olympic Committee, resigned in a scandal 2½ years ago tied to bribery allegations surrounding the IOC vote in 2013 to award the Games to Tokyo. Yoshiro Mori, a former prime minister, was forced out six months ago as the head of the organizing committee for making demeaning comments about women.
And just last week, on the eve ofthe opening ceremony, its director resigned for comments about the Holocaust and a composer stepped away after acknowledging accusations of bullying. That came months after the creative director resigned for derogatory comments — again about women.
Barbara Holthus, a sociologist at the German Institute for Japanese Studies, said the embarrassments may raise awareness and prompt change in Japan, a largely homogenous, island nation that nevertheless named mixed-race Naomi Osaka to light the cauldron in Friday’s opening ceremony.
The move seems widely accepted in Japan, though Osaka barely speaks Japanese and has lived much of her life in the United States. She has a Japanese mother and a Haitian father, but has given positive attention to the Olympics — even for those Japanese who oppose the Games.