Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 9 winners against the spread
Unlike most of the other major professional sports, the NFL’S annual trade deadline typically doesn’t produce any shifts in the futures betting market.
That changed this year, albeit ever so slightly. The deadline’s only major move, the Denver Broncos’ trading of future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams, saw the odds move in the latter’s direction.
The Rams went from 8-to-1 last week to 6-to-1 this week to win the Super Bowl at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. They’re now at the same price of the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the Buffalo Bills the only team lower, at 9-to-2.
Not every sports book adjusted the Rams’ futures, but most approached Miller’s arrival combined with last week’s results similarly to the Superbook. Even before the trade, some were starting to call the Rams the best team in the NFL after Week 8 losses by the Cardinals (10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl) and the Buccaneers.
Other trades that could have made an impact never materialized, but Miller at least represented one blockbuster. He arrives in Los Angeles right in time for the schedule difficulty to increase as the Rams have the Titans, 49ers and Packers over the next three weeks.
I’ll be handicapping them all here, and hoping that the success from last week can carry over. The pick’em went a season-best 11-4 in Week 8, bringing the record for the year to 63-58-1 picking every game against the spread.
Read on for Week 9 picks. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Plays (24-18)
Cleveland Browns +2.5 at Cincinnati Bengals:
The line on this game coming into the season was Cleveland -4.5, and the Browns haven’t played any worse
than anticipated when they’ve been close to full health. This should be the healthiest they’ve been in weeks, and they’ve still got a significant talent edge across the rosters.
San Francisco 49ers +1 vs. Arizona Cardinals: The 49ers outgained the Cardinals both in totality and on a per-play basis in a 17-10 loss earlier this season, and that was with an injured roster and limited offense behind rookie quarterback Trey Lance. Arizona may now be the more beaten-up team with a hobbled Kyler Murray among those ailing, and San Francisco’s offense is now in better hands with Jimmy Garoppolo.
New York Giants +3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
:The Giants are 0-3 in games decided by less than a touchdown, continually winding up on the wrong side of variance in spots where they’ve played well enough to win. Flip a couple of those results and they’d be the small favorite here instead of the slight underdog.
Denver Broncos +10 at Dallas Cowboys: The loss of Miller hurts, but not as bad as this line is implying. The Broncos are a slightly above average team on both offense and defense by EPA (expected points added) per play,
especially when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is healthy and starting.
Leans (20-21)
Carolina Panthers +4 at New England Patriots:
These are two of the top 11 teams in defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings — the Panthers are No. 8; the Patriots No. 11 — and two of the bottom 15 teams in offense — the Patriots are No. 17, the Panthers are No. 25. In other words, points should be valuable in a low-scoring game.
Philadelphia Eagles +2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: The move off 3 and onto 2 is a significant one and doesn’t make this quite the slam-dunk pick it was earlier in the week. But the Eagles are still at +0.6 net yards per play to the Chargers’ +0.2, and playing at home, may very well close a small favorite.
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Green Bay Packers:
My fair price on this game was Chiefs -3 before news broke that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers would be out after testing positive for coronavirus. Rodgers has been more or less the only force lifting Green Bay all year and should be worth more than four points on the spread.
Minnesota Vikings +6 at Baltimore Ravens:
This could be a get-right spot for the Vikings’ offense with the Ravens’ defensive issues rearing their head again in their last game, a 41-17 loss to the Bengals. Baltimore is 30th in the NFL in giving up
6.3 yards per play despite facing a mediocre slate of opposing offenses.
Atlanta Falcons +6 at New Orleans Saints: The Saints had been the most undervalued team in the league over the last month, but now-injured quarterback Jameis Winston might have had more to do with that than conventional wisdom indicated. There’s at least some drop-off to backup Taysom Hill, even though the line is implying none.
Guesses (19-19-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. Chicago Bears:
Bears’ quarterback Justin Fields’ breakthrough in the running game — he was second in the NFL last week with 103 rushing yards against the 49ers — won’t be extended against a stingy Steelers’ front. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the NFL against the rush by DVOA.
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans: There can be some debate over Titans running
back Derrick Henry’s value to the point spread — this one moved from 6 to 7.5 with news of his injury — but none regarding this mismatch Los Angeles’ offense presents for Tennessee’s defense. The Titans’ 27-3 win over the Chiefs two weeks ago seems to have overshadowed the issues their defense has encountered in every other game this season.
Houston Texans +6.5 at Miami Dolphins: It’s a speculative pick on the Texans for the second straight week, which should have some value here if they start Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. They’ve given all indications that re-inserting Taylor is the plan when he’s healthy, and he should be this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars +15 vs. Buffalo Bills:
On an efficiency basis, Jacksonville hasn’t been any worse than Miami this season. Buffalo had no business pushing an identical spread in what was a relatively close game in a 26-11 win over Miami last week. The Bills’ coaching advantage is massive, but there’s no way to get to this high of a price statistically.