GOP predicts gubernatorial gains in 2022

WASHINGTON — Republicans are increasingly optimistic about flipping governor’s offices in key battleground states next year, buoyed by President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings, Democratic infighting in Congress and better-than-expected results in elections in Virginia and New Jersey.

Democrats were already steeled for tough races, but the upset loss in Virginia’s governor’s race and a close win in deeply blue New Jersey’s confirmed the difficult conditions ahead. In both places, the party was largely caught off guard by the potency of culture-war debates over schools.

“Biden’s approval is pulling down Democrats everywhere,” said Charles Franklin, the pollster at Marquette Law School, which released a survey this week showing Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers’ approval rating had slid even more. “There’s no question national forces are playing a big role.”

Democratic incumbents will be playing defense in much-watched Michigan and Wisconsin, and trying to hold an open seat in Pennsylvania. The three governorships are seen as Democrats’ best chance to slow the GOP’S ascendancy in the Rust Belt. The GOP currently holds the governor’s office in 27 states, compared with Democrats’ 23. Thirty-six are up next year nationwide.

Those races are poised to become expensive and intense contests. Evers and Democratic Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania have emerged as major national figures, credited with stymieing Republican-controlled legislatures’ efforts to add restrictions on voting and to curb precautions during the coronavirus pandemic.

Flipping Michigan and Wisconsin and winning Pennsylvania — Wolf is term limited and can’t run again — would also likely give Republicans a boost heading into 2024.

Republican strategists say Wisconsin and Michigan are among their best pickup chances next year, along with Kansas — a normally deep-red state where Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly narrowly won a three-way 2018 race. Nevada, Maine and perhaps New Mexico could be within reach, they say.

Democrats, meanwhile, see pickup opportunities in open governorships in Maryland and in Arizona, where Biden last year became just the second Democratic presidential candidate to win since 1948.

Both parties, meanwhile, are also focused on Georgia, which narrowly went for Biden in 2020 and elected two Democratic senators in January.