College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 11 game
The ranks of the unbeaten are now empty. Yes, there are four college football teams that are still perfect from a straight-up perspective (Georgia, Oklahoma, Cincinnati and UTSA) but none are unscathed against the spread any longer. Michigan State became the final team to lose against the number in last week’s 40-29 loss to Purdue as 2.5-point favorites.
The Spartans fell to 6-1-1 against the spread, and now are in a race to win the Team of the Year in the College Football Betting Awards. One of the aforementioned undefeated teams now has the best against-thespread record in the nation, but not the one many may expect.
It’s UTSA, the Conference USA championship favorite that improved to 8-1 versus the number on the year with last week’s 44-23 win over UTEP as 12-point favorites. The Roadrunners’ only non-cover this season came against UNLV, of all teams, as they slipped past the Rebels 24-17 as 21.5-point favorites in early October.
Michigan State and UTSA both handed College Football by the Odds a loss last week but the column continued its trend from the entire season: strong overall but disappointing on plays. A 30-23-1 record against the spread picking every game last week brings the season total to 268247-6 (56-60 on plays, 99-70-2 on leans and 113-117-4 on guesses).
Read on for picks on every Week 11 game. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.
Big games
48.5. The evidence continues to get more compelling that backing Jim Harbaugh in big games is a bankroll-ruiner, but Michigan’s statistical profile is just too compelling to get away from. Even the Michigan State loss took the blowing of a 16-point lead, several questionable calls and the Spartans overcoming a 157-yard, 0.7-net-yardper-play disadvantage. Michigan +1.
Baylor — not Oklahoma — has been the best team in the Big 12 based strictly on this season’s performance. The weight of prior data — which painted Oklahoma having a large edge — still needs to be accounted for, but not to this extent.
Baylor +5.5.
Auburn has been inconsistent, but the Tigers are taking too much heat for that considering any team would be inconsistent against their schedule. The Tigers have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the nation by the FEI ratings, and still have been more efficient than the Bulldogs. Auburn -5.
Tennessee is finally getting some respect from the betting market, but now it might have gone too far too soon. There’s a consensus that Georgia is the best team in the nation, to the point that it’d be a 3.5- or 4-point favorite over Alabama on a neutral field. How then can it be explained that Tennessee was a much larger underdog, getting as high as +27, in a game against Alabama where it didn’t ultimately cover a few weeks ago?
Georgia -20.5.
Opportunities to buy low on the best offense in college football don’t come around too often. Relatively lethargic Ohio State performances in wins against Nebraska and Penn State the past two weeks have made that the case here though. Ohio State -20.
Iowa should win this game, but six points is a massive amount in a game with a total this low. The market is implying no dropoff from injured Iowa starting quarterback Spencer Petras to replacement Alex Padilla, but that’s a pretty big assumption with limited supporting evidence. Minnesota +6.
No one is playing better than Texas A&M, which has won and covered by double digits in four straight games dating back to its upset of Alabama. The Aggies probably won’t maintain this level throughout the end of the season, but it’s going to take a Heisman-like performance from Matt Corral to make the Rebels the team to break them out of it.
Texas A&M -2.5
Oregon has merely stayed afloat during a four-game winning streak following its loss to Stanford, but it’s shown flashes and has the roster quality indicating an extra gear. The Ducks should overwhelm the Cougars up front.
Oregon -13.5.
Big plays
UCF +7.5 at SMU, over/ under: 60.5. SMU has plateaued the past few weeks with speculation swirling on coach Sonny Dykes taking the TCU job. UCF has risen with freshman quarterback Mikey Keene settling in.
UCF +7.5.
With quarterback Skylar Thompson and running back Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State has one of the most well-balanced offenses in the nation. It’s going to be a challenge for a young West Virginia defense that’s continued to take its lumps. Kansas State -6.
Like I predicted in last week’s column, the Horned Frogs got a boost in playing for interim coach Jerry Kill. Like I write in the column every week, the Cowboys aren’t nearly as efficient as their record indicates. TCU +13.5.
Wyoming will slow this game to a crawl and focus on picking up four or five yards per play behind its deep stable of running backs. It’s not the type of style suited for Boise State and its mediocre rush defense. Wyoming +14.5
Last year’s Mountain West Conference Player of the Year runner-up, Spartans quarterback Nick Starkel, is finally back from injury. Utah State has overachieved to a sizable extent and may begin to experience regression as the season winds down.
San Jose State -4.5.
Other picks
Plays
Virginia Tech -11 vs. Duke Marshall -4.5 vs. UAB Florida Atlantic -6.5 at Old Dominion
Virginia +5.5 vs. Notre Dame
Arkansas -2.5 at LSU
Middle Tennessee State -10 vs. Florida International
Louisville -3 vs. Syracuse Georgia Tech -2 vs. Boston College
Iowa State -10.5 at Texas Tech Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. North Carolina
East Carolina +6 at Memphis Cincinnati -23 at South Florida
Georgia Southern +2.5 at Texas State
Tulane +3 vs. Tulsa
Ball State -2.5 at Northern Illinois
Florida State +2.5 vs. Miami NC State +2.5 at Wake Forest
Northwestern +24.5 at Wisconsin
North Texas +1.5 vs. UTEP Toledo -10 at Bowling Green Arizona State -5 at Washington
Ul-monroe -2.5 vs. Arkansas State
USC -1.5 at California
Rutgers +7 at Indiana Vanderbilt +21.5 vs. Kentucky Louisiana Tech -6 vs. Charlotte
Missouri +1 vs. South Carolina South Alabama +22.5 at Appalachian State
Michigan State -12.5 vs. Maryland
Western Kentucky -18.5 at Rice
Troy +6.5 vs. Louisiana
Fresno State -24.5 vs. New Mexico
Alabama -51 vs. New Mexico State
Temple + 25 vs. Houston UCLA -15.5 vs. Colorado Arizona +25 vs. Utah
Stanford +12.5 at Oregon State Georgia State +10.5 at Coastal Carolina
UNR +2 at San Diego State Central Michigan -2.5 vs. Kent State
Air Force -2.5 at Colorado State
Hawaii -3 at UNLV
Texas -30 vs. Kansas
Clemson -40 vs. Connecticut Southern Mississippi +33 at UTSA