Don’t bet on Bearcats to win easily

Cincinnati would be foolish not to worry about the College Football Playoff committee, but the Bearcats better worry about Houston first.

Cincinnati seems poised to be the first Group of Five team to advance to the CFP. The Bearcats are No. 4 in the CFP rankings and are the only other undefeated team besides No. 1 Georgia.

But “win and in” might not be so simple Saturday, especially if Alabama upsets Georgia in the Southeastern Conference title game. If that happens, the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs will be in the playoff, and Michigan has a slot locked up if it beats Iowa in the Big Ten title game.

Cincinnati has been ranked ahead of Oklahoma State all season, but it wouldn’t be shocking for the CFP committee to opt for a one-loss Power Five champion over the unbeaten Bearcats, provided the Cowboys defeat Baylor in the Big 12 title game Saturday.

Cincinnati’s stress-free path is a win, plus a Georgia victory to knock Alabama out of the discussion with two losses.

That’s a discussion for Saturday night, though. All of the Bearcats’ hopes go down the drain if they don’t take care of business against Houston.

The Cougars, ranked 16th by The Associated Press and 21st by the CFP committee, are on an 11-game win streak after dropping their opener to Texas Tech.

The Bearcats have to be feeling the pressure. They get to host the Cougars, but that could turn into a double-edged sword with nervous energy swirling through the stadium if the game is close in the fourth quarter.

Houston is capable of an upset and should be playing carefree. I’ll take the Cougars +10½.

Two more plays for Saturday:

■ Appalachian State -2½: The Sun Belt title game brings a “this line doesn’t look right” special. Louisiana-lafayette is ranked No. 20 by the AP and 24th by the CFP; Appalachian State is unranked. Louisiana has a better record at 11-1; the Mountaineers are 10-2. The Ragin’ Cajuns beat Appalachian State 41-13 earlier this season. This game is at Louisiana … and Appalachian State is still favored. That tells you all you need to know. Louisiana coach Billy Napier is coaching Saturday, but his mind very well could be on his new job at Florida. Lay the short number with the Mountaineers.

■ Michigan-iowa U43½: The Wolverines caught a big break when Minnesota knocked Wisconsin out of the Big Ten title game. The Badgers were capable of challenging Michigan, especially with the Wolverines off an emotional, all-out effort to topple Ohio State. Iowa does not present the same challenge. I’m not going to lay -11 with a grinding Michigan team that should be running the clock and looking to just get out with a win and playoff berth, but I’ll bet this game stays under the total.

■ Last week: 4-1

■ Season: 33-31-1