Models project wave of omicron fatalities

Variant milder but more transmissible

The fast-moving omicron variant may cause less severe disease on average, but COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are climbing, and modelers forecast 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans could die by the time the wave subsides in mid-march.

The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been trending upward since mid-november, reaching nearly 1,700 on Jan. 17 — still below the peak of 3,300 in January 2021. COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents started rising slightly two weeks ago, although still at a rate 10 times less than last year before most residents were vaccinated.

Despite signs omicron causes milder disease on average, the unprecedented level of infection spreading through the country, with cases still soaring in many states, means many vulnerable people will become severely sick. If the higher end of projections comes to pass, that would push total U.S. deaths from COVID-19 over 1 million by early spring.

“A lot of people are still going to die because of how transmissible omicron has been,” University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi said. “It unfortunately is going to get worse before it gets better.”

Morgues are starting to run out of space in Johnson County, Kansas, said Dr. Sanmi Areola, director of the health department. More than 30 residents have died in the county this year, most of them unvaccinated.

But the notion that a generally less severe variant could still take the lives of thousands of people has been difficult for health experts to convey. The math of it — that a small percentage of a very high number of infections can yield a very high number of deaths — is difficult to visualize.

“Overall, you’re going to see more sick people even if you as an individual have a lower chance of being sick,” said Katriona Shea of Pennsylvania State University, who co-leads a team that pulls together several pandemic models and shares the combined projections with the White House.

The wave of deaths heading for the United States will crest in late January or early February, Shea said. In early February, weekly deaths could equal or exceed the delta peak, and possibly surpass the previous U.S. peak in deaths last year.

In other developments:

■ Kansas will stop contact tracing for COVID-19 next month because it is “futile” as confirmed cases increase and the public becomes less interested in participating, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment said Tuesday. The change, which takes effect Feb. 1, means people who test positive for COVID-19 will be responsible for notifying their close contacts about possible exposure. If the person has been exposed at high-risk settings such as schools or daycares, state or local health departments will contact the setting, which will be responsible for notifying close contacts about the potential exposure.

■ U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry of Nebraska announced Tuesday that he has tested positive for COVID-19 and will temporarily work from home. Fortenberry, a Republican, said on his congressional website that he had a “moderate case” and will recuperate at home. He said he tested positive despite being vaccinated and taking precautions to avoid getting infected. He said he plans to follow U.S. House policy and vote by proxy on legislation.

■ The Michigan House of Representatives has canceled voting for the week because lawmakers and staff have COVID-19, are close contacts or are awaiting test results. The chamber typically holds session on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.