Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 10 winners against the spread
A version of this column was posted on lasvegassun.com.
Bookmakers spent most of last week enthusiastic about the NFL slate ahead, one that had three extremely high-profile games sure to garner large betting interest Sunday.
They couldn’t have possibly ended it with the same vigor. All three favorites in the aforementioned games won and covered — the Cincinnati Bengals against the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs against the Miami Dolphins — to play the biggest part in handing sportsbooks their biggest loss of the season.
Throw in another couple favorites cashing in stand-alone games — the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Tennessee Titans on Thursday and the Los Angeles Chargers against the New York Jets on Monday — and the betting public saw a windfall in Week 9.
Unfortunately, I was more aligned with the house. The pick’em fell to its first losing record in plays since Week 5.
And, unlike the house, I don’t have a season’s worth of profit to fall back on. It hasn’t been my best NFL season so far — closer to the worst — but the halfway mark just passed.
There’s a lot of time left to get back on track, and hopefully be on the winning end the next time everyone is celebrating putting a dent into the casino’s bottom lines.
Read on to find picks on every Week 10 point spread. Games are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with individual records attached. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The record for the year stands at 65-70-1.
Plays (21-20-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Green Bay Packers. Green Bay has fielded one of the worst offenses in the league despite facing a weak slate of opposing defenses over the first half of the year. That changes against a Steelers stop unit ranked seventh by the DVOA ratings that should be able to wreck the Packers if not add a score of its own as it’s so commonly done this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 vs. Tennessee Titans. Committing to rookie quarterback Will Levis for the rest of the season was the right choice for the Titans given how promising he’s been in his first two starts, but those showings might be slightly inflating his value. Progression isn’t linear, and Levis is lucky to have thrown only one interception, as defenses have dropped a few others.
New England Patriots
+1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts in Frankfurt, Germany. The Colts have done an admirable job of navigating through their litany of injuries to remain competitive, but at some point, all the absences are going to catch up to them. They didn’t play nearly as well as the final score indicated in last week’s 27-13 win against the Carolina Panthers as 2-point favorites, considering they only gained 3.5 yards per play and relied on a pair of Bryce Young-gifted interceptions returned for touchdowns by Kenny Moore.
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 vs. Houston Texans. This spread originally came off of -7 because of injury concern with Bengals star receiver Ja’marr Chase, but he’s now trending toward playing through a sore back. The Bengals will still be limited in the receiving corps, though, after Tee Higgins hurt his hamstring in practice and was ruled out of the game. The No. 2 receiver, though — unlike Chase — shouldn’t affect the point spread.
Leans (24-20)
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 at Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray has gone from the frequent butt of jokes to a player coming off a nearly yearlong absence who has enough respect to move a line 1.5 points off the most important number in the NFL, 3. Murray is a rare talent who probably doesn’t deserve all the ridicule extended his way, but expecting him to pick up right where he left off after an ACL tear is misguided. The Cardinals probably don’t have enough around Murray to maximize his talent in general, let alone in his first game back.
Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs. Denver Broncos. Despite the Bills’ dwindling overall effectiveness in a disappointing 5-4 straight-up, 3-6 against-the-spread season, quarterback Josh Allen still leads the league in most advanced statistics including QBR and DVOA.
Playing at home, Allen should be more than capable of cracking a Broncos pass defense that’s still vulnerable despite recent improvements.
Los Angeles Chargers
+3 vs. Detroit Lions. There’s arguably been too much concern expressed about the Chargers’ offense — which has a long track record indicating it will find its level — and not enough notice of their improving defense. Long one of the worst units in the league, the Chargers’ defense has played well in three of the past four games. Detroit has been great on the year but there’s more upside on Los Angeles if it’s finally figured out its defense.
Washington Commanders +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are continually overvalued by the betting market, considering they haven’t covered a closing spread in four consecutive weeks. Their last two cashes were against the Panthers and New York Giants, perhaps the two worst teams in the league. This should be a good spot for them, with a mediocre Washington team traveling across the country for the first time, but the asking price is too prohibitive.
Guesses (20-30)
New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings. Joshua Dobbs’ late-notice relief performance to lead the Vikings to a 31-28 upset victory against the Falcons last week was memorable, but the quarterback is not set up for success in the immediate future with his third team this season. Minnesota is dealing with a cluster injury at wide receiver as well as the prolonged injury absence of left tackle Christian Darrisaw, factors that should be affecting its market rating more negatively.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers. The number is fair but it still feels like Jacksonville isn’t getting the full credit it deserves for being the hottest team in the league with five straight wins and covers. The Jaguars have been extremely undervalued, covering in all five of those games by at least a touchdown and tying the Lions with the best againstthe-spread record in the league at 6-2.
Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 vs. New York Jets. Is the offensive improvement the Raiders showed in a 30-6 blowout victory against the Giants as 1-point favorites last week for real? It’s too early to say. But it’s not too early to say that they have a higher offensive ceiling than the Jets if rookie quarterback Aidan O’connell keeps improving at high rate, something counterpart Zach Wilson hasn’t been able to achieve.
Cleveland Browns +6 at Baltimore Ravens. There’s little debate Baltimore has been the best team in the league after another blowout victory last week against another current playoff team, 37-3 against Seattle as 6.5-point favorites, but this is a lot of points for a divisional game. It’s especially a lot of points for a divisional game against a defense performing at a historic level, as Cleveland leads the league in both DVOA and expected points added (EPA) per play.
Dallas Cowboys -16.5 vs. New York Giants. It’s impossible to confidently lay a number this large in the NFL, but this situation might be as close as it gets to it. Giants undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy Devito has shown no indication he’s a capable starter and now has to face a devastating Dallas defense rated third in the league by EPA per play.