Voter apathy could benefit baseball great
LOS ANGELES — California’s Senate race was expected to be a threeway Democratic prizefight, but the possibility of a record-low turnout is elevating the chances of Republican Steve Garvey, a former baseball star. California voters thus far have been sluggish to return mail-in ballots that were sent to 22 million homes earlier this month. The relative trickle of ballots has tended to come from older, white, conservative-leaning homeowners, a sweet spot for Republicans such as Garvey, a one-time National League MVP who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.
For months, Rep. Adam Schiff has had the fundraising and polling edge in a crowded Democratic field. Garvey’s ascent has imperiled the political prospects of Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter. The top two finishers in the March 5 contest, regardless of party, advance to the general election in November in the liberal-leaning state.
“We’re at a real risk of losing,” Porter’s campaign warned in fundraising emails.
Schiff was a leading voice in the two impeachments of former President Donald Trump. Lee is a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus. Porter has drawn attention on social media with her sharp questioning of tech CEOS in Capitol Hill hearings.
After the death of Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein in September, all three entered the race. Porter is leaving her swing district in Southern California as Democrats try to regain control of the House, where Republicans now hold a slim edge.
Presidential elections usually drive Democratic turnout in California, but that hasn’t been the case this year, with President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump on track for a second matchup in which both are viewed unfavorably by many voters.
“This is a low-interest, low-turnout kind of election cycle. That generally creates an electorate that is older, more conservative, whiter,” said
Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., a research firm that closely tracks voting trends and works with Democrats, independent candidates and academics.
While the dynamic could shift by the time primary voting ends, Mitchell said it’s possible that Garvey ends up with the highest total as the Democratic candidates splinter votes on the left.
“I don’t see a surge of Democratic turnout coming in the end, but there could be a surge of Republican voters in the end,” Mitchell said.
Schiff told reporters recently that he was concerned about a low turnout. His campaign has sent 3 million texts and made over 50,000 phone calls to potential supporters so far.