UNC’S top seed doesn’t impress oddsmakers
Editor’s note: For the 12th consecutive year dating to 2012, Case Keefer will handicap every NCAA Tournament game against the spread. These are the first entries in a four-part series previewing all the initial regions and games. Check back Thursday for the final two installments.
Shootouts appropriately seem to be what will ultimately settle the wild-looking West Region this year. Nine teams rated in the nation’s top 50 for the highest adjusted tempo, per kenpom.com, wound up in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Five of them fall in the West, including most of the primary contenders to reach the Final Four — No. 1 seed North Carolina, No. 2 seed Arizona, No. 4 seed Alabama, No. 11 seed New Mexico and No. 15 seed Long Beach State.
The Crimson Tide spent virtually the entire season with the highest-scoring offense in the nation and head into the tournament more than 1.5 points clear of every other team at 90.8 points per game. One of the only other teams that ever threatened their stranglehold was Arizona, which is currently third at 87.9 points per game.
No. 3 seed Baylor plays a little bit slower than all its West Region counterparts, but it scored at a per-possession clip as high as anyone. The Bears currently rate sixth in the nation in offensive efficiency per kenpom.com.
Baylor was memorably all offense and relatively little defense three years ago when it won the national championship. Every other title-winning team of the past 25 years graded out better on defense than the 2021 Bears but their offensefirst, defense-a-distant-second approach should give some of the teams in the 2024 West Region solace.
The betting odds imply a better than 50% chance that the West champion is either Arizona (+220, i.e. risking $100 to win $200, at the Superbook at Westgate Las Vegas), Baylor (+550) or Alabama (7-to-1). North Carolina is the lone No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament not favored to win its region, as it falls in behind Arizona at 3-to-1.
UNC is the sole team among the top four in the West that is better defensively than offensively. The speed the Tar Heels employ is largely a result of getting out into transition thanks to the rebounding prowess of big men Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram.
Shooting guard RJ Davis takes over from there and sits 11th in the nation in averaging 21.4 points per game. Alabama point guard Mark Sears (21.1) and Dayton big man Daron Holmes (20.4) make the West one of two regions with a trio of players averaging at least 20 points per game.
The West also has a tournament-high nine players who rank in the top 100 nationally in scoring. The aforementioned three are joined by No. 12 seed Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-foster (19.8), No. 6 seed Clemson’s PJ Hall (18.8), No. 7 seed Michigan State’s Tyson Walker (18.2), Arizona’s Caleb Love (18.1), Long Beach State’s Marcus Tsohonis (17.8) and No. 10 seed UNR’S Jarod Lucas (17.8).
The battles in the West Region aren’t going to be for the faint of heart. They’re bound to take bettors on a ride.
Read on for picks against the spread on every West Region game, separated in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence.
No. 4 seed Alabama -9 vs. No. 13 seed Charleston, over/under: 173.5
The Crimson Tide eviscerated midmajor foes in the nonconference — going 7-0 straight-up and 6-1 against the spread while averaging more than 100 points per game. And a few of those opponents would be favored over a young Charleston team that plays fast, and therefore, right into Alabama’s preferred game state. Play: Alabama -9.
No. 7 seed Dayton +1.5 vs. No. 10 seed UNR, over/under: 136.5
Do the Wolf Pack deserve an adjustment for a home-court advantage in the line for getting to play in nearby Salt Lake City? That’s the only way to explain why they would be favored over the Flyers. Dayton will have far and away the best player on the floor, and one of the best players in the nation, in Holmes. Lean: Dayton +1.5.
No. 3 seed Baylor -13.5 vs. No. 14 seed Colgate, over/under: 138.5
The Patriot League was down this season, grading out the worst it has in years by multiple metrics. That diminishes Colgate’s impressive 19-2 record against conference opponents. The Raiders have been athletically undone by NCAA
Tournament first-round opponents like Arkansas and Texas in recent years, and Baylor can implement the same blueprint. Lean: Baylor -13.5.
No. 8 seed Mississippi State +1 vs. No. 9 seed Michigan State, over/under: 130.5
Michigan State is the unluckiest team to make the NCAA Tournament field and sits 355th in the nation by kenpom’s luck metric. The Spartans have continually been on the wrong side of shooting variance and endgame situations. Mississippi State has benefited from some of the same type of fluky factors that have kept Michigan State down, including ranking an unsustainable fifth in the nation in three-point percentage defense. Lean: Michigan State -1.
No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s -5.5 vs. No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, over/under: 131.5
The Gaels play fundamentally sound defense and similarly mistake-free offense, so it’s tough to doubt them, but the Antelopes may have a plus matchup on the wings. Grand Canyon’s dynamic senior duo of Tyon Grant-foster and Gabe Mcglothan could give the Gaels fits, especially without injured former Liberty High star Joshua Jefferson. Guess: Grand Canyon +5.5.
No. 2 seed Arizona -20.5 vs. No. 15 seed Long Beach State, over/under: 163.5
The Beach (formerly known as the 49ers) are talented enough to hang with the Wildcats for a while, but stylistically, this is one of the worst matchups they could have drawn. Long Beach State plays fast but Arizona prefers an even higher tempo. More possessions mean more chances for the athletically superior side to pull away. Guess: Arizona -20.5.
No. 6 seed Clemson +2 vs. No. 11 seed New Mexico, over/under: 150.5
The Lobos are the more talented team with their high-flying backcourt, but their statistical profile has gotten a big boost from having one of the largest home-court advantages in the nation. If any team deserves a scheduling edge here, it’s the Tigers, as Clemson is 500 miles closer to Memphis, Tenn., where this game will be played and they’ve gotten three extra days of rest. My number is New Mexico -1.5, so there’s no real value. Guess: Clemson +2.