What’s the cloud outlook for eclipse? See what the past has to say
News and notes about science
April 8 will be your last opportunity to see a total solar eclipse in the contiguous United States or Canada until 2044. Mexico will have to wait even longer. But if clouds fill the sky as the moon passes between the sun and Earth, your shot at seeing the spectacle could be lost.
It’s still too early to know with much certainty what the weather will be like in your area that day; cloud forecasts aren’t reliable that far in advance. But a map of cloud coverage data, derived from satellite measurements, gives the next best thing — a historical account of where the skies are more likely to be clear on that spring Monday.
The map shows the average cloudiness — the portion of the sky covered by clouds — for April 7 through 14 for the past 20 years, using measurements collected by the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’S Aqua satellite. This analysis shows that cloudiness tends to increase farther north along the path of totality, or the relatively thin strip of land where the moon will fully block the sun.
That could mean your best chance for clear skies is in Mexico, with about a 35% average chance of cloud cover. For those in the United States, Texas has the lowest chance of cloud cover at about 45%.
But historical averages aren’t an oracle. The composite map is derived from satellite measurements taken at just one time of day — around 10:30 a.m. local time — and atmospheric dynamics like El Niño can have a big influence over cloud formation.
Ultimately, climatology can only get you so far. What really matters is the weather on eclipse day. About that, said Jay Anderson, a Canadian meteorologist, “It’s going to be what it’s going to be.”
Even with the best forecasts, a bit of luck can help. In 2009, Anderson directed a tour group in China to travel about 125 miles outside Shanghai to avoid bad weather. It was pouring when they reached their destination. But as the period of totality approached, the rain stopped and the clouds parted. They saw the total eclipse for nearly five minutes.
— Josh Katz, K.K. Rebecca Lai, William B. Davis
A seal’s spray adds a chapter to the science of spitting
On Jan. 3, 2022, Clare Jacobs, a bird-watcher, was delighted to spot a rare white-tailed eagle at a nature reserve in southern England. These birds vanished from the region 250 years ago, but more than two dozen birds have been released on the island since 2019.
Jacobs trained her camera on the eagle when she noticed something moving in the water below it: a gray seal. The large mammal popped out of the waves and opened its mouth.
Then the seal spit a stream of water at the raptor. Although Jacobs didn’t realize it immediately, this was highly unusual. Seals had never been seen spitting before, and reports of interactions between these two apex predators are essentially nonexistent.
Jacobs’ photos made their way to her daughter, Megan Jacobs, a doctoral student at the University of Portsmouth, and David Martill, a lecturer at the school. Together, they published the observation in the journal of the Isle of Wight Natural History and Archaeological Society.
The authors reason that the seal most likely spat at the eagle to deter a potential competitor for a meal of fish.
Sean Twiss, a professor at Durham University who studies gray seals, has never seen one spitting. He thinks it’s possible that the seal aimed to deter the eagle, or that it was just being playful.
The finding makes gray seals one of the few species known to spit. Some of the most famous members of this coterie include cobras, which can shoot venom from their fangs into the eyes of wouldbe
predators. Perhaps the most impressive spitters are archerfish, which knock insects and arthropods off leaves using jets of water.
— Douglas Main
Scientists discover 100 new marine species in New Zealand
A team of 21 scientists set off on an expedition in the largely uncharted waters of Bounty Trough off the coast of the South Island of New Zealand in February hoping to find a trove of new species.
The expedition paid off with the discovery of 100 new species, a number that was likely to grow, said Alex Rogers, a marine biologist who was a leader of the expedition.
Dozens of mollusks, three fish, a shrimp and a cephalopod that is a type of predatory mollusk were among the new species found in the expedition, which was led by Ocean Census, a nonprofit dedicated to the discovery of ocean life; the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand; and the Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa.
More than 2 million species are estimated to live in the oceans, but only 10% of ocean life is known. It is vital to learn more about aquatic life because marine ecosystems carry out functions that support life on Earth, like creating food for billions, storing carbon and regulating climate, Rogers said.
“We’re dealing with a situation where we know marine life is in decline,” he said. “In order to try to manage human activities to prevent this continuing decline, we need to understand the distribution of marine life better than we currently do.”
Ocean Census was founded by the Nippon Foundation, a Japanese philanthropic organization, and the Britain-based
foundation Nekton. When it began its work, Ocean Census set a goal of finding at least 100,000 new marine species in a decade.
In the February expedition, researchers mapped the area with an imaging system and video cameras and then deployed what is known as the Brenke sled — a sampling device with two nets, one close to the seabed, and the other a meter above it. As it drags along the floor, the device churns up animals living close to the sea floor. To find larger animals, the researchers used other methods, such as baited nets.
— Rebecca Carballo
Salamander’s underground status vastly overstated
Scientists have discovered that blind cave salamanders in northern Italy leave their underground homes to go on expeditions to the surface. Eyeless and ghostly pale from millions of years spent below ground, the salamanders appear to commute back and forth to the sunny surface using springs where water bubbles up from hundreds of feet deep. Raoul Manenti, a zoology professor in Milan, and colleagues described the discovery in a study published in the journal Ecology.
Over the centuries, a handful of the salamanders, a species called olms, had been spotted aboveground, but scientists assumed that they were the victims of flooding. Cave salamanders are so specialized for life underground, the thinking went, they couldn’t possibly survive outside their caves. To find an olm, researchers usually have to rappel down well-like openings to reach caves. But the research team spotted an olm swimming in an aboveground spring, and soon found them in a number of other springs as well.
— Elizabeth Anne Brown