U.N. braces as Trump’s detente with Russia upsets balance of power

UNITED NATIONS — President Donald Trump’s outreach to Russia is reverberating through the United Nations, where U.S. allies worry that a partnership between Washington and Moscow could undermine a historic balance of power dating to the early days of the Cold War.

For decades, the five veto-wielding members of the 15-nation Security Council have fallen into two camps — France, the U.K. and the U.S., referred to as the P3, on one side and Russia and China on the other.

Just days into his presidency, Trump is upsetting all that.

The result could reshape the world body’s response on conflicts from Syria to Ukraine and its approach to thorny decisions such as whether to deploy peacekeepers or condemn a country for human-rights violations. While the five permanent members can always veto resolutions or decisions, they usually try to win majority support from other Security Council members for their cause instead. That’s where the new American president’s approach comes in.

Foreign diplomats “will be flying blind” with Trump, said Richard Gowan, a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Many expect him to work more closely with Russia but are not sure how far this will go.”

Few countries have more at stake than Ukraine, which is keenly focused on whether the U.S. will continue to stand with other nations in not recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, or if Washington softens its stance — and eases sanctions — in return for more cooperation against terrorism. Syria’s beleaguered opposition, which Russia has targeted for bombing in its support of President Bashar Assad, could be wiped out if the U.S. shifts policy and withholds its support.

The U.K., which boasts of its “special relationship” to the U.S., is said to be deeply concerned that Trump’s admiration for President Vladimir Putin will give Russia sway in Eastern Europe, according to two senior officials, who asked not to be identified discussing a sensitive matter.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May met with Trump in Washington on Jan. 27, and Trump spoke with Putin by phone for about an hour the following day.

“It’s one thing to say you want to put ‘America first’ and try new things, but this is not the right time to turn your back on alliances that have served us for 70 years,” said Edward Luck, a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “You may think it’s time to approach diplomacy differently but you cannot throw out the baby with the bathwater.”

While Trump’s new UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, was known as a conciliator in her past job as governor of South Carolina, she arrived at her new post last week with a stern warning indicating she’s ready to pursue Trump’s pugnacious stance at the world body. The U.S. will “have the backs of our allies and make sure that our allies have our back as well,” she told reporters. “For those that don’t have our back, we’re taking names.

Under President Barack Obama’s administration, the Russia-U.S. relationship soured to the point that the Security Council’s work was largely paralyzed. Samantha Power, Obama’s UN ambassador, and her Russian counterpart, Vitaly Churkin, feuded repeatedly over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria.

In a Security Council hearing in December, Power charged Russia with complicity in “massacring” innocent civilians by backing Assad’s regime and pro-Assad militias. Churkin, in turn, said Power was trying to act like “Mother Teresa” and said the U.S. and U.K. were to blame for the rise of Islamic State because of their invasion of Iraq.

But in the most contentious debates, it was typically Russia on the defensive with backing from China, as the two countries sought to stop or slow UN condemnations or calls for ceasefires or other forms of intervention. China has supported Russia’s positions in vetoing five resolutions on Syria since 2011. Now, with Trump saying an alliance with Moscow would be an “asset,” it could be even harder for less powerful countries to get the support they need for such action.