Harper, Heyward, others hope to bounce back
Normally, a home run by Bryce Harper in his first Grapefruit League at-bat would pass relatively unnoticed. So, too, would the more than half-dozen other balls he sent over fences during exhibition games this spring for the Washington Nationals.
After all, Harper has demonstrated that he is quite capable of being a pre-eminent slugger, even becoming the youngest MVP in major league history in 2015. Last year was a different story altogether, though.
Whether because of injury or other reasons — it’s never been made 100 percent clear — he went from 42 homers to 24, from a .330 batting average to .243, from a 1.109 on-base-plusslugging to .814.
Harper is one of several significant major leaguers hoping to bounce back this season, a group that includes Jason Heyward of the reigning World Series champion Chicago Cubs, past Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros and former MVPs Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants and Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
“The best thing about Bryce’s year last year is that he didn’t have a ‘typical Bryce Harper year,’ and we still won 95 games. When he goes back to having his typical year — which he will — we should improve,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said.
“The secret is: Go about your routine. Water seeks its level. Harper’s going to be Harper,” Rizzo said. “He’s going to hit in the middle of our lineup. He’s going to be an MVP candidate. He’s one of the great players in all of baseball. He’s in the team photo for ‘Most Elite Players in the Game.”’
And, well, it’s not as if Rizzo — or anyone else, for that matter — is concerned about Harper getting down on himself.
“I think everybody knows,” Harper said, “I always have confidence.”
Slumps are a fact of life in baseball, with its 162-game grind and the idea that, as Rizzo put it, “There’s a reason we always talk about averages.”
“I don’t know anybody that’s gone his whole career without getting in a hole,” Nationals manager Dusty Baker said.
The key, of course, is turning things back around. There is no magic formula or a standard reason for why a player might take a step back one year, then get on track the next.
Everybody is different, of course, so it could be as simple as returning to health or finding a mechanical flaw that can be rectified.
Sometimes it’s a matter of sticking with what’s been successful in the past and banking on the notion that one mediocre-for-you year was an aberration.
In Heyward’s case, the hope is that a subtle adjustment to the way he gets ready to swing — re-gripping the bat during the pitcher’s windup — could get him back to the guy who hit 27 homers in 2012, instead of the one who finished with seven last year and was even benched during the Fall Classic.
“It’s something that I’ve done before,” he said of leaning on a familiar batting approach. “There’s plenty of video to look at, plenty of games to look at, where this is what I’ve been.”
Managers, GMs, hitting coaches, pitching coaches or teammates of those trying to right themselves also need to know how much, or how little, to try to help.
“I attempt to not muddy the waters,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said. “If I have something that I’m seeing, I’ll take it to (a hitting coach) and have them bring it to him . ... Been around situations where too many guys want to be involved in the solution and they just want to have the player eventually say, ‘This guy helped me, helped me become good again.’ That is such a bad mindset to coach from.”
Harper’s teammate, Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, is a career .278 hitter with six 20-homer seasons (and a high of 33) who batted a career-worst .218 with 15 homers in 2016. So he did what more and more players are doing these days to try to rebound: He took a look at analytics.
What he discovered was that his exit velocity was good, but his launch angle was not ideal.
“I was hitting the ball hard, but I wasn’t hitting it in the air, essentially wasting how hard I hit it,” Zimmerman said. “So I needed to change that.”
“It wasn’t for lack of effort,” he said. “Nobody likes to fail. Nobody likes to have a bad year. But I knew I did everything I could. For whatever reason, what happened, happened. Now I need to move on.”
Among others who want to move on: Keuchel, who went 912 with a 4.55 ERA before being sidelined by shoulder inflammation; McCutchen, who paired a career-low .256 average with a career-high 143 strikeouts; Posey, whose batting average slid 30 points to .288 and who hit 14 homers; and Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who batted .240 with 140 strikeouts in 413 at-bats.
Stanton had a hard time ignoring outside breaking balls and often wound up swinging at pitches that were impossible to hit.
“Not one to remember for the good, I’ll tell you that,” he said about last season. “I didn’t take too many positives from my aspect of it. But definitely, you learn some things the hard way and look back at what went wrong and get stronger from it.”
The Tar Heels were the national leader on the offensive glass during the regular season, snatching 15.74 per game, nearly a full rebound more than the next-closest team. North Carolina cleans up nearly 42 percent of its misses, so their best offensive play is often a missed shot.
The Tar Heels grabbed 13 offensive rebounds on 31 shots, leading to 17 secondchance points in their Elite Eight win over Kentucky, one of the longest teams in the country.
Kennedy Meeks is the biggest O-rebound producer, grabbing 3.68 per game, good for 10th nationally.
The Ducks have two starters taller than 6-foot-4 and were 114th nationally in clearing off defensive rebounds. Oregon handled one good offensive rebounding team by knocking out Kansas, but will have its hands full on Saturday.
Two words likely to be heard from Oregon coach Dana Altman a lot: “Box out!”
South Carolina’s front court vs. Gonzaga’s bigs
Gonzaga has a massive 1-2 punch up from with Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. At 7-foot-1, 300 pounds, Karnowski may be the biggest player in the country. He’s also an adept passer who picks apart double teams and has great footwork for maneuvering in the paint. Collins is an athletic 7-foot freshman who can score inside, outside and may be the best NBA prospect in the Final Four.
South Carolina counters with Maik Kotsar and Chris Silva.
Kotsar is 6-10, but gives up more than 50 pounds to Karnowski. Silva is an inch shorter and more than 75 pounds lighter than Gonzaga’s big man. Keeping those two out of foul trouble while getting help from everyone else will be a big key Saturday.
Pace game, Oregon vs. North Carolina
The Ducks are often thought of as a fast-paced, high-flying team. They are high fliers, but a fast pace is not their thing. Oregon has an adjusted tempo that’s 241st nationally and was able to slow Kansas and Michigan, two fast-paced teams, on its way to the Final Four.
North Carolina, on the other hand, is one of the fastest teams in the country. The Tar Heels love to get out and run under any circumstance, sometimes scoring five seconds after a made free throw by their opponent.
Fast or slow, that could determine this side of the bracket.
Gonzaga’s 3-point shooting vs. South Carolina’s perimeter defense
The Gamecocks play defense along the perimeter as if they have six players on the floor. South Carolina is seventh nationally in 3-point defense, holding teams to a tick under 30 percent from the arc and reached the Final Four by holding Florida to 7-of-26 shooting from 3 in the Elite Eight.
Gonzaga is one of the nation’s most efficient offensive teams, but the Zags don’t usually do it with a lot of 3-point shooting.
Gonzaga has scored 807 of its 3,080 points this season (26 percent) on 3-pointers, though it does shoot 37 percent from the arc. The Zags made 12 of 24 3-pointers to beat Xavier in the Elite Eight, but went 12 for 46 in wins over South Dakota State and Northwestern.
Gonzaga likes to work its offense from the inside out, so having an effective inside game could help free up its shooters, like it did in the Xavier game.
Gonzaga’s Nigel Williams-Goss vs. Sindarius Thornwell
As individual matchups go, this is a good one.
Williams-Goss is the Zags’ leader, running their offense while scoring on a variety of drives, 3s and step-back jumps. He also an underrated defender — just ask West Virginia’s Jevon Carter, who was unable to get a clean look in the closing seconds of the Sweet 16.
Thornwell has been an unstoppable force in the NCAA Tournament, leading the bracket with 26 points per game while practically carrying the Gamecocks to their first Final Four.
No telling how much they’ll get matched up, but it sure will be fun when they do.