The dealmaker is ready to renege on an American commitment

President Donald Trump has been coy about his intentions for the Iran nuclear deal (the J.C.P.O.A.), but it appears that soon he will reject the counsel of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Theresa May. His criticisms of the deal have been so emphatic that it’s hard to see how he could do anything other than repudiate it. This is unfortunate.

Trump has been wrong about many things. Sometimes he is mistaken, sometimes misinformed and sometimes — let’s be honest — he lies.

But the consequences of rejecting the Iran nuclear deal will be far greater and more persistent than Trump’s misrepresentations about the size of his inaugural crowd or his lies about hush money paid to a porn star. In fact, revoking our commitment to the agreement will have a longlasting negative impact on the stability of the Middle East that rivals that of our misguided invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Space does not permit a detailed analysis of the deal. Trump has achieved considerable leverage with his base by calling it “insane” and “ridiculous,” but reasoned evaluation by many experienced, impartial Middle East experts and diplomats has found otherwise.

The deal was never intended to resolve all of the problems that Iran presents in the Middle East — no deal could do that. But its essential objective, the limitation of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, appears to be reasonable and achievable.

If some of the support for the agreement appears to be partisan, note that the member of Trump’s administration who is often considered to be its most thoughtful has said essentially that the deal seems to be achieving its goals. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis concedes that the deal isn’t perfect but after reading it three times, including a classified protocol, he finds that the verification procedures are “actually pretty robust as far as our intrusive ability to get in.”

While Mattis questions the deal’s sufficiency, he doesn’t dispute the findings of the Atomic Energy Agency, which indicate that Iran is in compliance with its end of the bargain.

Then what about our obligation to hold up our end of the bargain?

French President Macron addressed the Iran agreement during his recent speech to Congress: “We signed it...at the initiative of the United States. We signed it, both the United States and France. That is why we cannot say we should get rid of it...We should not abandon it without having something substantial and more substantial instead. That’s my position. That’s why France will not leave the J.C.P.O.A. Because we signed it.”

Trump is known for the “art of the deal.” But he isn’t known for the smart deal or the fair deal. Many of his deals have fallen through, led to bankruptcy or resulted in settlements with plaintiffs who have been victimized by them.

Nor is Trump known for the integrity that is required to comply with the obligations of an agreement. He has a reputation for stiffing contractors, partners, clients and wives. After all, there are always other deals.

But dealmaking in business is not the same as dealmaking in diplomacy. Trump talks often about “walking away from the table,” as he has threatened to do during the impending meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. In business there are always other tables.

But Iran and other Middle Eastern nations are seated at an international table from which we cannot afford to be absent. Repudiating the Iran deal not only provides permission and motivation for Iran to develop nuclear weapons, it undermines American credibility as a fair, impartial, right-minded dealmaker of any sort, in the Middle East or elsewhere.

Trump’s characterizations of the Iran nuclear agreement are prejudiced by political considerations and unmodulated by any understanding of Iran’s long history. He has surrounded himself with advisers hostile to the deal and who have little appreciation for the dreadful abyss that military action against Iran would entail.

Trump may surprise us on May 12, but don’t count on it. What lies beyond a broken American commitment to the deal is fearful to contemplate.

John M. Crisp, an op-ed columnist for Tribune News Service, lives in Georgetown, Texas, and can be reached at jcrispcolumns@gmail.com.