Even with new U.S. sanctions, Kremlin still betting on Trump
MOSCOW — Even after the U.S. announced new sanctions against Russia last week that sent the ruble into a tailspin, the Kremlin isn’t holding it against Donald Trump.
Instead, top Russian officials are hoping the U.S. president may yet be able to deliver on his promises of improving relations — or at least head off pressure growing in Congress for even more Draconian sanctions, according to officials and others close to the leadership.
“The Kremlin understands Trump’s logic and that the reaction of the markets and the public is excessive because nothing terrible has happened,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a research group set up by the presidential administration. “Everybody understands that Trump had to respond to the congressional move and that it’s important for him to put the brakes on it.”
For the moment, Russia has held off retaliating for the new sanctions, limiting its response to angry rhetoric and waiting to see how the debate on a Senate bill for more sweeping restrictions plays out in the fall. With the personal rapport between the leaders warm and contacts expected to continue, the Kremlin is confident that Trump genuinely wants to rekindle ties if he can get a political window of opportunity in Washington.
But while it keeps the faith on Trump, the Russian government is quietly digging in. Officials are increasingly convinced that while the size of Russia’s economy — and Trump’s desire for warmer ties — are likely to protect it from crippling sanctions like those applied to Iran, its financial and economic isolation will last years and could yet deepen.
The Kremlin is struggling to keep up with the rapidly shifting winds of Washington politics, with many insiders complaining of how unpredictable the U.S. has become.
Russian officials were upbeat after the warm atmosphere of the July 16 summit in Helsinki. But the backlash in the U.S. that followed Trump’s handling of that meeting doused any euphoria. The ruble began to slide after a bipartisan group of senators introduced the bill to impose tough new sanctions, including on Russian foreign debt and state banks.
Imposition of the latter limits would amount to “an act of war,” Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said.
Then on Aug. 8, the State Department announced it was imposing additional sanctions over the poisoning in the U.K. in March of a former Russian agent and his daughter. While the initial round of those restrictions, scheduled to be imposed as early as next week, is expected to be relatively modest, much more Draconian limits, including restrictions on trade and diplomatic ties, could be imposed 90 days later.
The ruble plunged to the lowest level in two years, forcing the central bank to suspend its buying of foreign currency to rebuild Russia’s emergency rainy-day fund.
Publicly, the Kremlin lamented the move as a departure from the “difficult but constructive” tone of the Helsinki meeting, but held off any retaliation.