Poll: Hunter leads in re-election fight despite legal troubles

Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter’s legal woes don’t seem to be having the devastating effect on his re-election chances that Democrats had hoped.

According to a poll released Tuesday, 49 percent of potential voters in his inland San Diego County district said they would vote for the Republican congressman, who faces federal charges of misusing campaign funds, if the election were held today. By contrast, 41 percent of those surveyed by Monmouth University said they would support Hunter’s opponent, Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar.

Hunter’s lead remains despite the fact that just under 4 in 10 voters believe Hunter is definitely or probably guilty. Among the district’s voters who currently support Hunter, 21 percent lean toward thinking he is guilty; 41 percent say he’s not guilty, according to the survey.

Hunter’s lead, which falls outside the poll’s margin of error, demonstrates the difficulty Democrats will have flipping seats in rock-ribbed conservative areas like the 50th Congressional District, where Republicans hold a voter registration advantage of nearly 15 percentage points.

Although national Democrats do not see the district as a crucial part of their plan to retake control of the House of Representatives, news of Hunter’s indictment had buoyed hopes that they could notch a win in this historically right-leaning territory.

A federal grand jury indicted Hunter and his wife last month, alleging they funded a lavish lifestyle by illegally using campaign money, then filed false campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission to cover it up. The couple pleaded not guilty.

The Monmouth University poll was conducted by telephone from Sept. 22 to 26 and included 401 potential voters who had either cast a ballot in at least one election since 2010 or who had registered to vote since January 2016. The margin of error for the sample was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.