No: Kavanaugh vote more likely to energize Democrats

As a psychologist who found the testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford to be very credible, I believe that the Kavanaugh confirmation will contribute to voter enthusiasm for Democratic candidates at the midterm elections more than it will energize the Republican electorate.

But as a scientist, I look at the evidence to make sense of conflicting polls and conflicting pundits.

Although the election is a few weeks away, it is too soon to know which party will benefit. Voters' memories can be short. However, it is likely that the confirmation will contribute to the "blue wave" in the House races, and possibly in the Senate as well.

Let's start with the polls, and then consider other evidence. A recent Washington Post-ABC poll shows that most (51 percent vs. 41 percent) voters don't think Kavanaugh should have been confirmed.

Of course, that doesn't mean his confirmation will influence millions of votes. More importantly, that same poll shows more registered voters (33 percent) saying that the confirmation will likely inspire them to vote for a Democrat rather than a Republican.

This is especially true for women with 40 percent inspired to vote for Democrats compared to 24 percent for a Republican, with less impact on men in the opposite direction _ 30 percent more likely to vote Republican and 25 percent more likely to vote for Democrats.

The benefit for Republicans seems low given GOP claims that this "scary time for men and boys" is energizing their base.

Trump's support has increased slightly and polls for several Republicans running in crucial Senate races — especially North Dakota — have also shown an increase in support.

Why does the controversy seem more beneficial to Democratic candidates than to Republicans?

I think that I know why. Like most women, I grew up at a time when attempted rape and nonconsensual sex were considered "not really assault" and certainly not information to share with one's parents.

I was affected much more dramatically by Dr. Ford's testimony than I expected. It brought up memories I repressed for many years _ memories that I suddenly wanted to share with loved ones.

I don't want my children or grandchildren to ever be haunted by memories like that, and if they report being attacked I want them to be believed.

Many women and men felt the same way, as shown by the deluge of similar stories by adults of all ages and from all walks of life, famous or not. Those memories will be an especially powerful motivating force driving many women to the polls, and most of those women won't be voting for Republicans.

The men who were responsible for those memories may vote differently. They may want their drunken escapades as teens or young adults to be considered the meaningless hormone-driven stupidity of adolescent boys. Many were grateful to the GOP for defending Kavanaugh, which indirectly defended all men whose victims have not named names.

But as the polls tell us, GOP support for Kavanaugh's confirmation may not result in more GOP votes because:

1. The voters who most vehemently supported Kavanaugh — for whatever reason — were already voting for the GOP

2. Kavanaugh was confirmed, so the anger against Democrats who defended Dr. Ford is already dissipating.

As GOP leaders pointed out, they "beat the mob" of women protesters and got their man confirmed. Unfortunately for GOP leaders, the confirmation that they orchestrated is the very reason that voters energized by Kavanaugh's hearings won't be energized by Kavanaugh's confirmation.

Some claim that the House and Senate races are affected in opposite directions, but a closer look indicates otherwise. The bump in support for Republicans is primarily in Senate races in very red states.

The anger many voters feel about a Supreme Court justice who had lied under oath when Dr. Ford bravely came forward will benefit Democratic candidates in states and districts that are closer to purple, including some that are usually safely red.