» HOW THE A’S ARE PROJECTED IN 2019
The Oakland A’s reached the postseason last year for the first time since 2014, but projections for this upcoming season have them crashing back down to earth.
Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for all 30 Major League Baseball teams Thursday morning. A 2019 finish of 80-82 is what the A’s are estimated to finish with, which is a downgrade of 17 wins from their 97-65 record from last season.
The 80 wins would qualify for third in the American League West, according to the projections. The Houston Astros are projected to finish with the best record in baseball at 99-63, while the Los Angeles Angels are slotted for second at 81-81.
Of course, these projections are just that. The A’s ended up crushing last year’s system prediction of 77 wins, and maybe this year’s number of wins changes should they add another starting pitcher or catcher here in the next month with plenty of quality free agents still without teams.
PECOTA is a sabermetric system that has been around since 2003. It is considered to be the most accurate projection system in all of sports. In addition to team projections, individual A’s player projections were also released. According to those predictions, expect another impressive display of power.
Khris Davis is the expected team leader with 35 home runs, a downgrade from the 48 he slugged last season and the over 40 he’s hit over each of the past three years. Like the A’s, Davis has been known to crush prognostications — PECOTA had him finishing with 34 for the 2018 season. Matt Olson (28) and Matt Chapman (24) are projected to hit over 20, with Ramon Laureano projected for 19 as he takes over the full-time job in center field. Stephen Piscotty is expected to finish with 18.
The A’s offense as a whole is projected for a dramatic downfall in run production. Though they finished fourth in MLB with 813 runs last season, PECOTA has them at 727 runs this season, which would rank eighth in the American League.
The uncertainty of the starting rotation also a negative factor here. The A’s don’t even know which pitchers will make the Opening Day rotation, but PECOTA lists for Mike Fiers, Daniel Mengden, Marco Estrada, and Jesus Luzardo as the four starters, with an opener expected at least one turn through the rotation. Of the four, Luzardo, the A’s 21-year-old top pitching prospect who has yet to pitch a big league game, is projected as the best pitcher on the staff. PECOTA lists a 3.77 ERA for Luzardo, as opposed to the 4.50plus ERA for the other three starting pitchers.
Here’s a Luzardo comparison sure to get A’s fans jumping for joy — ZiPS, a system which uses growth and decline curves based on player types to find trends, lists Steve Carlton as Luzardo’s No. 1 player comparison. Not bad at all.