Schultz’s independent bid in 2020 would help Trump win, poll finds

WASHINGTON — Howard Schultz is unlikely to land in the White House if he makes an independent bid for the presidency, but he would probably pull enough votes away from a Democratic candidate to strengthen Donald Trump’s prospects for re-election.

That’s the conclusion of a survey examining the former Starbucks Corp. chief executive officer’s political ambitions conducted by Optimus, a data science firm that’s studying the effects of independent candidates on the 2020 race.

The 65-year-old Seattle billionaire is drawing 7.7 percent of voters overall, but pulls twice as much support from Democrats (11.6 percent) as Republicans (5.6 percent). The poll highlights the reason Democrats reacted so angrily to Schultz’s announcement that he’s considering running for president as a centrist independent: The leading Democratic presidential hopefuls fare worse against Trump when Schultz is included in the race.

The national survey of 1,290 registered voters found former Vice President Joe Biden leading Trump 50 percent to 43 percent in a head-tohead match-up. But Biden’s lead shrinks to 4 percent when Schultz is included. Trump narrowly led Sen. Kamala Harris 45 percent to 43 percent, but his lead swelled to 4 percent with Schultz as an option. Trump also led three-way races against Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

Schultz says he’s banking on a “silent majority” of Americans who are fed up with what he considers to be the extremity of the two major parties. His advisers point to the growing number of political independents as evidence of a potential constituency, although experts say most independents actually are reliably partisan and not the kind of moderate swing voters that Schultz considers himself to be. Finding a path to 270 electoral votes would require him to win sizable numbers of Democrats and Republicans, in addition to independents.

“If he didn’t have $3 billion you’d put a fork in him,” said Scott Tranter, a partner at Optimus.

The path for an independent to win the White House is particularly onerous. Optimus modeled several possible outcomes for Schultz and found that even winning 33 percent of the popular vote would likely only net him about 22 electoral votes.

“In order to win as a centrist independent, our models suggest he’d have to carry at least 37 percent of the popular vote, while taking between 22 percent and 45 percent each of Democrats, Republicans and independents,” Tranter said. “Realistically, he’d have to displace one of the major-party nominees.”

In 1992, billionaire H. Ross Perot won 19 percent of the vote — the highest total of any recent independent candidate — and didn’t win a single electoral vote.

To mount a viable campaign, the former Starbucks CEO will first have to make himself better known to voters. The Optimus survey, conducted Jan. 30 to Feb. 1, found that less than half of respondents (48 percent) could identify him.

Schultz’s announcement that he’s considering an independent run triggered a furious reaction from Democrats. He was heckled at a book event the day after he appeared on CBS’ “60 Minutes” and lambasted by Democrats.