Breaking down the Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup
Andy Reid never has been a big ground-and-pound advocate. The Chiefs this season averaged just 23.4 rushing attempts, sixth fewest in the NFL. Their running backs averaged just 19.1 carries. Even on first down, they prefer to air it out. They ran the ball on just 46.3% of their first-down plays this season. The only other playoff team that threw more than it passed on first down was the Saints.
The Chiefs didn’t have a running back with 500 rushing yards or 115 rushing attempts. In their two playoff wins, quarterback Patrick Mahomes had 106 of their 230 rushing yards. Damien Williams is a serviceable runner, whose strength is his versatility as a receiver. He had just 183 carries in his first five seasons in the league. He averaged 3.2 yards per carry in the Chiefs’ two playoff wins. Rookie Darwin Thompson appears to have replaced veteran LeSean McCoy as the second running back.
The 49ers held their first two playoff opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. But the Vikings ran the ball just 10 times and the Packers only 16. The Niners gave up 130 or more rushing yards in six of their last 10 regular-season games. But they have linebacker Kwon Alexander and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt back, which has been a big plus. EDGE: Niners
Patrick Mahomes’ ability to extend plays and make unorthodox throws on the run makes him extremely dangerous. He was fourth in yards per attempt (8.33), third in interception percentage (only five in 484 attempts), and second in third
down passing. He averaged 9.53 yards per attempt on third down and was a big reason the Chiefs had the league’s best third-down conversion rate (47.6).
Mahomes has a 131.6 postseason passer rating with eight touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has a fast and dangerous group of receivers in wideouts Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman and tight end Travis Kelce. Coupled with his ability to extend plays, that makes the Chiefs’ passing game difficult to stop. Mahomes has been sacked just twice in 72 postseason pass plays. In the regular season, he was sacked just 17 times in 503 pass plays.
The 49ers have one of the league’s top pass rushes, and will need to get pressure on Mahomes. Their 48 sacks were the fifth most in the league this season. Their front four of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, and DeForest Buckner combined for 33 of those 48 sacks.
The Niners finished first in yards allowed per attempt (5.9). Cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon can be exploited. He gave up a teamhigh six touchdown passes in the regular season.
EDGE: Chiefs
Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid have two very different philosophies regarding the importance of the run game. Shanahan’s 49ers averaged 31.1 rush attempts this season, second only to the Ravens’ 37.2. In their win over the Packers in the NFC championship game, Garoppolo attempted just eight passes. In their two playoff games, the Niners ranthe ball on 89 of 119 offensive plays. Forty-five of the Niners’ 55 first-down plays in the playoffs have been runs.
Using a three-back rotation that features former Eagles practice-squadder Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Breida, they finished second in rushing (144.1 per game) and eighth in rush average (4.6). Mostert has been hot the last two months. He rushed for 220 yards and four TDs against the Packers. In the Niners’ final six regularseason games, Mostert averaged 6.1 yards per carry, 6.2 on first down. In the Niners’ last eight games, including the playoffs, Mostert gained 7 or more yards on 35 of 112 carries.
The Chiefs finished 28th in opponent rush average this season (4.9). But they did a good job against the Titans’ Derrick Henry in the AFC championship game, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries.
EDGE: Niners
Jimmy Garoppolo might not have the carry-an-offense-on-his-back capability that Mahomes does. But the success of the Niners’ run game has allowed Garoppolo to be very effective. He finished eighth in passing (102.0), fifth in completion percentage (65.1), and third in yards per attempt (8.4). He threw 13 interceptions, but 10 of them came in the Niners’ first 10 games. Including their two playoff wins, he threw just four picks in his last 187 attempts.
Garoppolo threw just 28 passes in the Niners’ two playoff wins, including only eight against Green Bay. They’ll likely have to mix it up a little more than that Sunday.
George Kittle is the league’s most complete tight end. He is an excellent in-line blocker, had a team-high 85 receptions, and finished third among NFL tight ends in yards after the catch (7.3). His 27 third-down receptions were the seventh most in the league and the most by a tight end. Rookie Deebo Samuel is a wide receiver in a running back’s body. He averaged 14.1 yards on 57 catches and also excelled on jet sweeps. Emmanuel Sanders was a terrific tradedeadline acquisition. He has a 67.9 catch rate in 10 games with the Niners.
The Chiefs have a solid pass defense. The extra week between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl has given defensive tackleChris Jones’ injured calf time to heal. Jones and defensive end Frank Clark combined for 17 sacks this season. The Chiefs had eight sacks in their two playoff wins, including four by Clark. One of the heavyweight coverage machups in this game will be Chiefs All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu vs. Kittle.
EDGE: Niners
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker converted 34 of 38 field goal attempts this season. Just one of those four misses was from shorter than 50 yards. He has an 89.7 accuracy rate in his three seasons in the league. Punter Dustin Colquitt is in his 15th NFL season, all of them with the Chiefs. He finished 23rd in net average this season. Just 19 of his 48 attempts were returned. He put 21 of those 48 inside the 20.
Rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman handles both punt and kickoff returns for the Chiefs and gives them a legitimate homerun threat. The second-round pick finished fifth in punt-return average (9.3) and fifth in kick-return average (26.1).
Dave Toub is one of the best special-teams coaches in the league. His coverage units have been outstanding this season, finishing third in punt coverage (4.7) and fourth in kickoff coverage (19.6). The Chiefs gave up just one punt return longer than 11 yards all season.
Niners kicker Robbie Gould is in his 15th season and third with the Niners. He was 23for-31 on field goal attempts this year, 0-for-4 from 50-plus. He missed two from shorter than 39 yards and also saw two blocked. Punter Mitch Wishnowsky was 14th in net average (41.6). Only 23 of his 52 punts were returned.
Second-year wide receiver Richie James is the Niners’ punt and kickoff returner. He averaged 8.0 yards on punts this season and 21.4 on kickoffs. Niners coverage units were solid. They finished seventh in punt coverage (95.7) and 14th in kickoff coverage (21.8). EDGE: Chiefs
Both coaches have been here before, Kyle Shanahan was here in the 2016 season as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator (lost to the Patriots). Reid, of course, was here in the 2004 season with the Eagles (also lost to the Patriots). The Chiefs were outscored, 31-7, in the first quarter of their first two playoff games but managed to recover. They probably don’t want to dig themselves into yet another early hole Sunday.
EDGE: Niners
49ers 27, Chiefs 24
49ers DEs Dee Ford and Nick Bosa vs. Chiefs OTs Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz: Fisher and Schwartz have done an excellent job of protecting Patrick Mahomes all season, allowing only one sack and nine QB hits. Bosa, who had nine sacks, is the likely NFL defensive rookie of the year. Ford missed five games with a calf injur, but still has 6 1/2 sacks. ADVANTAGE: Even
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan vs. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: Shanahan’s offense finished second in the league in scoring this season. His play designs and play-calling keep defenses off balance. Spagnuolo is a competent enough defensive coach with a lot of experience, but whether he can stay one step ahead of Shanahan remains to be seen. ADVANTAGE: Niners
49ers NCB K’Waun Williams vs. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill: Williams is a solid slot corner who doesn’t give up the big play. But he’s going to face a big challenge when the Chiefs put the speedy Hill in the slot. Forty-one of Hill’s 66 receptions and four of his nine touchdown catches have come when he’s lined up inside. ADVANTAGE: Chiefs
The Niners’ run game. They’ve averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the playoffs. Raheem Mostert’s 220 rushing yards against the Packers were the most in playoff history. The Chiefs’ run defense has struggled much of the season but managed to stone Derrick Henry two weeks ago.
The turnover battle. Jimmy Garoppolo had 13 interceptions and the seventh-worst interception percentage in the league. The Niners’ 23 giveaways were the 12th most in the league. The Chiefs turned it over just 15 times. Just two teams turned it over less.
Third down. The Chiefs and Niners own two of the best third-down offenses in the league. The Chiefs were first (47.6), and the Niners were fifth (45.0). Mahomes was second in the league in third-down passing with a 116.4 passer rating. The Niners’ two playoff opponents were a combined 5-for-21 on third down, including 0-for-11 on third-and-7 or more.