How the Western Conference race is taking shape
The Kings will play host to the New Orleans Pelicans in a game with major playoff implications for both teams today at 7 p.m. at Golden 1 Center.
The Kings (28-36) and Pelicans (28-36) are in a dead heat in the Western Conference playoff race with 18 games remaining. They are tied for ninth, four games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth seed in the West. Wednesday’s game, which was moved to 7:30 p.m. to accommodate the national television broadcast by ESPN, could determine which team will go on to overtake the Grizzlies, who face a daunting schedule down the stretch.
The Portland Trail Blazers are a halfgame behind the Kings and Pelicans. The San Antonio Spurs are a half-game behind the Blazers. Only one of those five teams will reach the playoffs. Here’s how the race looks with five weeks remaining in the regular season ...
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
— Record: 32-32
— Games remaining: 18 (9 home, 9 away) — Last 10: 6-4
— Next five: Orlando, at Portland, at Utah, at San Antonio, Oklahoma City
If the Grizzlies are going to make the playoffs, they will have to earn it. They have the second-most difficult remaining schedule in the NBA, according to Tankathon.com. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .568. FiveThirtyEight.com gives them an 18% chance of making the playoffs.
The Grizzlies are led by Rookie of the Year frontrunner Ja Morant, who is averaging 17.6 points, 7.0 assists and 3.5 rebounds. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Justise Winslow are planning to return from injuries later this week. Brandon Clarke is expected to be back at some point, too.
The Grizzlies have won four of their past five games, including an impressive shorthanded victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, but they have a long way to go. Seventeen of their 18 remaining games will be against teams that are either going to the playoffs or vying for a playoff berth. The schedule includes games against the Orlando Magic, Blazers (2), Utah Jazz, Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder (2), Milwaukee Bucks, Pelicans (2), Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors (2), Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers and Houston Rockets.
SACRAMENTO KINGS
— Record: 28-36
— Games remaining: 18 (10 home, 8 away) — Last 10: 7-3
— Next five: New Orleans, Brooklyn, Dallas, at Houston, at Orlando
The Kings have made a quite a run over the second half to vault themselves into playoff contention after going 15-29 to start the season. They are 13-7 in their last 20 games. They are tied for the fifth-best record in the NBA and have the 13th-best net rating (+2.2) since Jan. 24.
Still, the Kings have a difficult and narrow path to the postseason. They were four games behind Memphis before the Grizzlies played host to Orlando on Tuesday. Even if the Grizzlies collapse under their weight of their schedule, the Kings will have to outpace the Pelicans, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA with two games against the Grizzlies and Kings.
The Kings have the 18th-most difficult remaining schedule. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .489. FiveThirtyEight.com gives them an 8% chance of making the playoffs. The Kings have 11 games left against sub-.500 teams. Winning all of those games would get them to 39 wins, but that is unlikely and might not be enough to secure the No. 8 seed. In order the end their 13-year playoff drought, the Kings will probably have to pick up multiple wins against the likes of the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Rockets, Mavericks and Nuggets.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
— Record: 28-36
— Games remaining: 18 (9 home, 9 away) — Last 10: 5-5
— Next five: at Sacramento, at Utah, at Los Angeles Clippers, Atlanta, San Antonio
The Pelicans have the easiest remaining schedule. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .439. FiveThirtyEight.com gives them a 62% chance of making the playoffs.
The Pelicans also have Zion Williamson, the beast they unleashed on the league when he recovered from knee surgery seven weeks ago. The rookie phenom averaged 23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists in his first 19 NBA games. New Orleans is 10-9 with Williamson in the lineup, posting impressive wins over the Celtics, Grizzlies and Heat and one puzzling loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The next 14 days will probably decide the Pelicans’ fate. Over the next two weeks, they will play the Kings (2), Jazz, Clippers, Hawks, Spurs and Grizzlies (2). Beating the Kings or Grizzlies twice could be a deathblow to that team’s playoff hopes. Picking up four or five wins during that stretch would put the Pelicans in a favorable position going into their last 10 games, which could produce seven or more wins against the likes of the New York Knicks, Magic, Hawks, Washington Wizards (2), Spurs (2), Charlotte Hornets,
Phoenix Suns and 76ers.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
— Record: 28-37
— Games remaining: 17 (10 home, 7 away) — Last 10: 3-7
— Next five: Phoenix, Memphis, Houston, Minnesota, Dallas
The Blazers were coming off back-to-back losses to the Kings and Suns before playing Phoenix again Tuesday. They’ve lost five of their last seven, but they have a favorable remaining schedule and one big reason for hope of a strong stretch run.
Jusuf Nurkic is expected to make his season debut against the Rockets on Sunday, nearly a year after suffering a gruesome leg injury. Nurkic is a 7-foot-tall, 290-pound center who averaged 15.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 blocked shots last season. Nurkic will be a huge addition to Portland’s frontline, even if his minutes are restricted or he misses games in the team’s two remaining back-to-back scenarios.
The Blazers have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .478. They still have two games left against the Grizzlies, both of them at home. FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Blazers an 11% chance of making the playoffs, but you can’t count Damian Lillard out just yet. The fivetime All-Star is averaging 29.9 points, 7.8 assists and 4.3 rebounds.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
— Record: 26-36
— Games remaining: 20 (12 home, 8 away) — Last 10: 4-6
— Next five: Dallas, Denver, Minnesota, Memphis, at New Orleans
The Spurs haven’t missed the playoffs since 1997, but their NBA record-tying streak of 22 consecutive postseason appearances appears to be coming to an end. They’re only one game behind the Kings and Pelicans and a half-game back of the Blazers, but they are five games behind the Grizzlies.
The Spurs had lost two in a row and five of seven going into Tuesday’s game against the Mavericks. Over the next two weeks, they will also play the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Jazz (2). They still have some very winnable games against the Timberwolves (2), Chicago Bulls and Warriors (2), but that won’t be enough. Even if the Spurs manage to gain ground in the weeks ahead, they will end the regular season with a difficult stretch against the Rockets (2), 76ers, Indiana Pacers and Pelicans.
The Spurs have the 12th-easiest remaining schedule. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .488, but FiveThirtyEight.com gives them a 1% chance of making the playoffs.