COVID-19 cases extend ‘troubling’ U.S. surge as weather cools down
The number of daily COVID-19 cases is continuing its steady climb as temperatures begin to dip across the U.S., students return to classrooms and more people stay indoors where the virus spreads easily.
While far fewer people are ending up hospitalized with the illness than during the pandemic’s surge in March and April, many more deaths are expected to be added to almost 218,000 already reported nationally as cases spike, experts said.
“If you take a look from 30,000 feet, most states have rising case numbers,” with no downward trends to be seen, said William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee. “That is troubling as winter approaches.”
Nationally, seven-day moving case averages have climbed to their highest in two months, while the number of currently hospitalized COVID-19 patients was the most since Aug. 27, according to Johns Hopkins University and COVID Tracking Project data.
The seven-day average of deaths due to COVID-19 is still at about a third of peak levels in April, but a decline that took place over recent weeks appears to have stopped. Reported deaths often lag behind other numbers by several weeks, said Schaffner, so those numbers will likely follow the rising number of cases and hospitalizations.
“All of us anticipate COVID is going to increase this winter,” he said.
Hopes that warm summer weather might tamp down spread were frustrated by outbreaks in Sun Belt states. Since then, there’s been a surge of cases in the Upper Midwest and on college campuses across the country. The highest case rates per capita in the past seven days have been in North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin and Utah.
Those trends, and similar increases across Europe, are cause for alarm, said New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio.
“It’s absolutely troubling to see how far these places are falling backwards,” he said Friday in an appearance on WNYC radio. “We can’t allow that to happen here.”
While the initial surge of the virus hit densely populated urban areas, it’s now overwhelming rural regions, suburbs and small cities. Based on the sevenday rolling average of new cases, New Mexico, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Mississippi have seen the biggest increases in the past week, by percentage.
“Overall, it’s looking grim to see the infections on the rise and the hospitalizations tracking with that,” said Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Translational Research Institute in La Jolla, California.
The growing number of daily cases is a key indicator of the virus’s nationwide spread. With holiday socializing, influenza and winter weather all on the horizon, the increased number of hospitalizations is also cause for concern that the health-care system may soon be overwhelmed once again in certain areas.