Scientists: Americans expecting too much from vaccine
The White House and many Americans have pinned their hopes for defeating the COVID-19 pandemic on a vaccine being developed at “warp speed.” But some scientific experts warn they’re all expecting too much, too soon.
“Everyone thinks COVID-19 will go away with a vaccine,” said Dr. William Haseltine, chair and president of Access Health International, a foundation that advocates for affordable care.
Ongoing clinical trials are primarily designed to show whether COVID-19 vaccines prevent any symptoms of the disease — which could be as minor as a sore throat or cough. But the trials, which will study 30,000 to 60,000 volunteers, will be too short in duration and too small in size to prove that the vaccines will prevent what people fear most — being hospitalized or dying — by the time the first vaccine makers file for emergency authorization, expected to occur later this year, Haseltine said.
The United States should hold out for an optimal vaccine, with more proven capabilities, Haseltine argued. Others say the crushing toll of the pandemic — which has killed at least 225,000 Americans — demands that the country accept the best vaccine it can achieve within the next few months, even if significant questions remain after its release.
“There’s a tension between getting every piece of information and getting a vaccine (out) in time to save lives,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Cancer.
“Would we like to know if the vaccine reduces illness or mortality? Of course,” said Dr. Peter Lurie, a former FDA official and the current president of the Center for Science in the Public Interest. “But there is a real time pressure. This is a pandemic. It’s explosive.”
Researchers debated how rigorously to test COVID-19 vaccines at a Thursday public meeting of the Food and Drug Administration advisory committee on vaccines.
“Simply preventing mild cases is not enough and may not justify the risks associated with vaccination,” said Peter Doshi, an associate professor at the University of Maryland School of Pharmacy who detailed his concerns in an editorial in The BMJ.
But vaccine experts say there are good reasons to focus on milder cases of COVID-19.
Vaccines that prevent mild disease typically prevent severe disease, as well, said Dr. Arnold Monto, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health and temporary chair of the vaccine committee.
For example, the original studies of the measles vaccine showed only that it prevented measles, not hospitalizations or deaths, said Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health.
Later studies found that measles vaccines dramatically reduce mortality. According to the World Health Organization, worldwide deaths from measles fell by 73% from 2000 to 2018 because of vaccines.