Florida could see tropical storm-force winds, flooding from Eta this weekend

MIAMI — South Florida is in for a drenching of 6 to 8 inches of rain through the weekend and could see tropical stormforce winds from Eta starting early Monday morning.

While Eta has since weakened to a tropical depression over Honduras, the National Hurricane Center predicted the storm would turn toward the Caribbean Sea on Thursday and start to strengthen. Thursday afternoon, the Cayman Islands issued a tropical storm watch.

The latest forecast shows Eta crossing Cuba on Sunday as a tropical storm before taking a sharp left into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. That could bring tropical storm-force winds to the Florida Keys as early as Sunday morning but most likely Monday morning, according to the hurricane center.

Exactly when — and where — Eta makes that left makes all the difference in what impacts South Florida sees. Forecasters noted that the models are split, and “after the turn, some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while others stay over Cuba.”

As of the 4 p.m. update, the hurricane center gave Key West the highest chances (30%) of seeing tropical storm-force winds on Monday morning, while the odds in Homestead (11%) and Miami (10%) were much lower.

But the real threat is the rain. South Florida is already waterlogged from weeks of downpours, and the Miami office of the National Weather Service predicted Thursday afternoon that the region could see as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain from Eta in Fort Lauderdale, while Miami and Homestead could see more like 6 to 8 inches.