DRYING OUT
Winter has been dry, but wet weather may be coming
The Lodi area has, so far, had one of the driest winters in recent history. And with record-breaking high temperatures for four days running in the Stockton area, it hasn’t really felt much like winter, either.
But the forecast isn’t completely hopeless.
A wave of moisture is headed into the Lodi area later this week, and will bring with it cooler temperatures, Accuweather meteorologist Max Gawryla said.
The Lodi area can expect some rainfall late this week, likely on Friday, the private weather forecasting firm is predicting.
“It looks like there’s another low that’s going to track in early next week,” Gawryla said.
That could potentially bring intermittent rain through the second half of next week, he said.
That said, January is still likely to be drier than usual, he added.
It’s been warmer than usual, too. In Stockton, the nearest location with long-term temperature records, the mercury has reached unprecedented heights in recent days. The National Weather Service recorded a high of 72 degrees on Saturday, breaking the previous high of 69 set in 2014; 72 on Sunday, beating the 68 degrees recorded in 2009; 78 on Monday, shattering the 2009 record of 69; and 72 on Tuesday, topping its record of 71 from 1981.
Sacramento also broke records on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, but not Tuesday, the NWS reported.
While temperatures should start dropping beginning today, Gawryla said, Stockton may actually break another record. The forecasted high for the city for today is 67 degrees, and the current record for Jan. 20 is 68.
Temperatures should start steadily declining toward the end of the week, Gawryla said, with more normal highs in the low to mid-50s by next week.
The lack of precipitation and unseasonably warm weather has wreaked havoc on the state. The entire state is reporting abnormally dry weather, the U.S. Drought Monitor notes, and 95.2% of California is
experiencing at least moderate drought.
San Joaquin and Sacramento counties are currently classified as experiencing severe drought.
According to the state’s Department of Water Resources, the snowpack in the Northern Sierra is only about half of normal for this time of year. It drops to 45% of normal in the Central Sierra, and only 23% of normal in the Southern Sierra.
Much of the Sierra is seeing either severe or extreme drought conditions, the U.S. Drought Monitor reports.
“This has been an abhorrently dry winter for most of central to southern California,” Gawryla said.
While the rest of January looks to be wetter than it has been, he said, rain and snow levels are unlikely to reach normal amounts.
Still, some snow is expected in the Lake Tahoe area at the end of this week and the beginning of next week, according to the National Weather Service. It’s uncertain yet whether January’s change in weather will have much of an impact on the snowpack.
But long-term forecasters at Accuweather see some hopeful signs for February: It’s too far away to be certain yet, but it looks like precipitation next month might look closer to average than it has so far this season.
Is this the new normal for California?
That’s what meteorologists are trying to figure out, Gawryla said.
“There’s a lot of talk about climate change and how the general warming of the atmosphere might bring about these drier stretches, especially on the West Coast,” he said.
But it’s hard to tell whether the season’s rainfall levels in California are due to climate change, or just a dry pattern, he added.
Lodi rainfall totals at a glance
California has had more drought years than wet years recently, starting with the 2007-08 rainfall season. In Lodi, only four seasons since July 1, 2007 have met or topped the average seasonal rainfall of 17.56 inches for this area. (The rainfall season is measured from July 1 to June 30.)
Rainfall totals as of Jan. 19/total seasonal precipitation in Lodi over the past 10 years:
• 2011-12: 2.11 inches/9.87 inches
• 2012-13: 11.63 inches/14.43 inches
• 2013-14: 1.98 inches/9.64 inches
• 2014-15: 9.34 inches/13.12 inches
• 2015-16: 9.91 inches/19.73 inches
• 2016-17: 18.74 inches/33.88 inches
• 2017-18: 5.98 inches/15.17 inches
• 2018-19: 12.83 inches/32.56 inches
• 2019-20: 6.23 inches/8.86 inches
• 2020-21: 1.95 inches/TBD
The 2016-17 rainfall season was the wettest on record in Northern California.
— Source: www.patricksweeneydds.com