RAMS, LIONS MAKE BLOCKBUSTER TRADE
SANTA CLARA — The landscape-altering trade over the weekend showed the stark differences between the philosophies guiding the 49ers and the Rams. The move will have major ramifications in the ultracompetitive NFC West.
The deal, of course, was the Los Angeles Rams dealing Jared Goff and a pair of firstround picks to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, the quarterback many linked to the 49ers as a possible upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo.
The 49ers were involved in trade conversations with Detroit, but clearly two firstround picks and Goff was a price San Francisco wasn’t willing to beat. And not landing Stafford increases the chances Garoppolo is back as the 49ers’ starter in 2021, barring an unlikely trade for Texans star Deshaun Watson or drafting a prospect good enough to start as a rookie.
Coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have signaled more trust in Garoppolo than the fan base might have, but sticking with controversial players is not entirely outside their character as decision-makers.
“Look at Jimmy’s record when he’s been here,” Shanahan said Dec. 28, referencing the team’s 22-8 record with Garoppolo as the starter and 727 mark with without him.
“Jimmy, you can win with. He’s proven that. He’s proven he’s a starting quarterback in this league. We had a couple of other guys who got opportunities this year who played like they have a chance at times to be starting quarterbacks, but they did play like backups overall.”
Big bets made by 49ers — Shanahan and Lynch have made a number of bets on players that didn’t have high Q ratings outside team headquarters. Some worked out and some haven’t. Two that come to mind are defensive lineman Arik Armstead and safety Jimmie Ward, who had checkered injury histories before getting sizable contracts last offseason. Armstead led the team in sacks on the vaunted defensive line in 2019 (but took a significant step back in 2020) while Ward has become an integral player in a passing defense that ranked first and fourth over the last two seasons.
Big bets that haven’t worked out? Defensive end Dee Ford provided juice to the pass rush while playing just 22 percent of the snaps in 2019 because of knee and hamstring injuries,
but was a virtual zero in 2020 while missing 15 games with a back problem.
Running back Jerick McKinnon landed a fouryear, $30 million contract in 2018 free agency but missed two seasons with ongoing knee injuries before coming back to a minor role in 2020 on a revised contract. Weston Richburg became one of the highest-paid centers in the NFL when he joined San Francisco in 2018 but missed all of this season with a knee injury he suffered in December 2019. It appears unlikely those three players will be back in 2021.
“It is hard. There’s a risk-reward with everything,” Shanahan said. “Some have paid off, some haven’t.”
That recent history proves there’s no exact pattern with that portends to Garoppolo’s ability to stay healthy and effective in 2021. That uncertainty is a reason the 49ers might be willing to make an upgrade to someone more reliable — at the right price.
The 49ers believe they can build a championship winner around a healthy Garoppolo, but the evidence from the last three seasons suggests Garoppolo needs optimal surroundings to win. He’s not the caliber of quarterback that elevates a franchise on his own. That’s a differentiating factor from the elite to the notches below.
From the Rams’ perspective, trading Goff and two first-round picks for Stafford is a big swing. Los Angeles is set to go seven straight seasons, from 2017 to 2023, without making a pick in the first round of the draft.