California COVID infections on sharp decline
California reached two milestones in the coronavirus pandemic over the weekend, one somber and the other promising.
The state on Saturday officially surpassed 40,000 deaths from COVID-19, according to a daily update from the California Department of Public Health, equating to more than one death for every 1,000 residents.
Virus death totals continue to flood in, averaging more than 520 per day over the past two weeks, as thousands remain hospitalized and in intensive care units in connection with the brutal winter surge that has started to wane.
It took less than three weeks for the state’s death toll to shoot from 30,000 to 40,000.
On the more hopeful side: The number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in California now exceeds the number of labconfirmed COVID-19 cases reported, overtaking the latter total over the weekend. As of Sunday updates from CDPH, there have been over 3.43 million doses injected since shots started in midDecember, against 3.23 million confirmed infections in the past year.
The vaccination count includes both first and second doses of the two-shot regimens from Pfizer and Moderna, meaning there are not yet 3.43 million Californians fully protected against COVID-19.
The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports about 560,000 in the state have received both doses, meaning the roughly 2.9 million who remain are somewhere within their three- or four-week waiting periods for their second shot, depending on the brand.
California is entering February from a much better baseline of COVID-19 activity than it did in January, with all metrics except deaths far lower and still rapidly declining.
Test positivity rate, which health experts view as a key figure in estimating true spread of the virus, has declined from 12.6% in the two weeks leading up to Jan. 1 to 7.4% over the past two weeks. Likewise, the state is averaging about 21,500 new cases per day, down from about 38,000 at the start of January, according to CDPH.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital beds statewide has declined from just over 20,000 on Jan. 1 to a little
less than 15,000 as of Sunday’s update.
The ICU patient total for the virus entered January at about 4,500 but by Sunday had dropped below 3,950.
The death rate, though it remains near its highest point ever, appears to show signs of slowing growth. COVID-19 deaths correlate strongly with hospitalizations and especially with ICU cases, but lag behind those trends by a few weeks due to the progression time of the virus.
It’s likely that the rate of deaths will soon begin to decline. However, like the ICU graph, it may be a slow fall at first.
Vaccine ruled out in Placer County man’s death
Placer County coroner’s officials over the weekend said the vaccine has been ruled out as a contributing factor in the death of a 64-year-old man who received it hours before dying.
The Placer County Sheriff’s Office and local health department had released a joint statement a week earlier, on Jan. 23, announcing the Jan. 21 death and the timing in relation to the vaccine being administered, but had offered few other details and said the cause of death was pending.
In Saturday’s update, sheriffcoroner’s officials made clear the vaccine wasn’t to blame: “Clinical examination and lab results have determined the COVID-19 vaccine has been ruled out as a contributing factor in the individual’s death.”
The Jan. 23 announcement prompted backlash: Many expressed concern that releasing the information before a cause of death was determined would cause unwarranted worries about the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which clinical trials have shown to be safe and highly effective. News of the Placer County man’s death hours after vaccine injection made national and international headlines.
More vaccine centers opening in Sacramento, Central Valley
Some major private health care providers in the Sacramento area and across the Central Valley are opening large vaccine centers this week, including sites in Sacramento and Roseville. Some of the sites are at unadvertised locations to discourage shot-seekers from showing up without an appointment.
“This is the largest public health response many of us have seen in our professional careers,” Branden Nelson, director of clinical operations for primary care for the Sutter Medical Foundation in the Sacramento region, recently told The Bee.
Sacramento County has also begun taking “vaccine interest” registrations for residents ages 65 and older.
The vaccination campaign to accelerate the end of the COVID-19 pandemic has no modern precedent in its scale. California’s earliest weeks of the rollout have been marred by a number of factors, from short supply to data reporting problems to the complexity of the state’s priority system governing who should get their vaccine first.
California’s vaccine rollout has improved in terms of speed and efficiency but remains in the bottom third among U.S. states for each, according to CDC data.
California through Saturday had distributed about 58% of vaccine doses distributed by the federal government. That ranks 13thlowest among the 50 states plus Washington, D.C., but is much better than the 37% reported less than two weeks ago — which had ranked the Golden State dead last among the 51.
The CDC also reported Sunday that California had administered 8,315 doses per 100,000 residents, ranking it 12th-lowest among the states. At the high end, Alaska has given more than 16,000 shots per 100,000, while 10 other states plus D.C. have given between 10,000 and 15,000 shots per 100,000.
The federal government last week announced that allocations would be increasing this week to about 10 million doses nationwide, up about 16% from the 8.6 million distributed last week.
California is also set for a 16% boost: the CDC says the state is being allocated about 563,000 doses this week, compared to 486,000 each of the last two weeks.