Are the Kings playoff contenders? Four keys to Sacramento's surprising turnaround

The Kings have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past two weeks, winning seven of their last eight games to get back into the Western Conference playoff race.

Sacramento (22-25) is riding a season-long five-game winning streak into Wednesday's rematch with the San Antonio Spurs (23-21) after handing the Spurs a 132-115 loss Monday night at AT&T Center. With 25 games remaining, the Kings are 11th in the Western Conference, three games behind the Dallas Mavericks for seventh and one game behind the Golden State Warriors for the final play-in spot.

The teams that finish seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th this season will participate in a play-in tournament to determine which teams advance to the playoffs as the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds. The winner of the "seveneight game" will go to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. The loser of that game will play the winner of the "nine-ten game" to determine the No. 8 seed.

Fivethirtyeight.com currently gives the Kings a 19% chance of reaching the playoffs and ending the NBA's longest active postseason drought after 14 consecutive losing seasons. The site predicts the Mavericks will finish seventh at 41-31 followed by the New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies and Warriors at 35-37, with the Kings finishing one game out of the play-in tournament at 34-38. The Kings and Pelicans are tied for the 12th-most difficult remaining schedule (.501) in the NBA, according to Tankathon.com. The Grizzlies (.495), Mavericks (.476) and Warriors (.475) have easier roads ahead.

"The goal for this team has been to make the playoffs and that's what we're focused on," Kings center Richaun Holmes said. "Right now, we're just focusing on getting better every day, taking it one game at a time and just worrying about how we can continue to make ourselves better on both sides of the floor, and let the rest take care of itself. We want to continue to win, continue keeping this thing rolling and, hopefully, be in the playoffs at the end of the day."

How did the Kings get here after losing nine in a row to fall eight games under .500 in late February? Here are four keys to Sacramento's surprising turnaround.

Lineup change — The Kings are 71 since rookie sensation Tyrese Haliburton moved into the starting lineup after Marvin Bagley III suffered a broken hand in a March 15 loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Many have concluded Sacramento is better without Bagley.

The Kings are 47-65 (.419) in the 112 games Bagley has played since coming out of Duke as the No. 2 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. They are 45-44 (.506) in the games Bagley has missed. We started to see this trend last season, when Bagley was limited to 13 games due to injuries and the Kings went 2-11 in those contests. This season, the Kings are 15-22 with Bagley and 7-3 without him. Bagley has had some nice moments this season while demonstrating progress at both ends of the floor, but it's clear the team's spacing, ball movement, shooting and defense have improved with Haliburton in the starting lineup.

The Kings are ninth in the NBA in offensive rating (114.3), 30th in defensive rating (117.7) and 24th in net rating (minus-3.5) this season. Over the past eight games, they are seventh in offensive rating (117.5), 17th in defensive rating (112.4) and seventh in net rating at plus-5.1. Only the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Philadelphia 76ers, Mavericks and Denver Nuggets had a better net rating over that span.

The Kings have been remarkably efficient during this stretch, ranking second in the NBA in true shooting percentage (61.1) and third effective field-goal percentage (57.8). They are averaging 116.9 points per game while allowing 111.1, a plus-5.8 point differential that would rank fifth in the NBA behind the Jazz, Clippers, Suns and Milwaukee Bucks.

Star Fox — De'Aaron Fox was named Western Conference Player of the Week on Monday following a 4-0 stretch in which he averaged 36.8 points while shooting 64% from the field, 37.5% from 3-point range and 82.8% at the free-throw line. He scored 30 or more in four consecutive games, including a career-high 44 points in a 141-119 victory over the Warriors on Thursday.

Fox will also receive strong consideration for Player of the Month, along with Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard and Zion Williamson. The Kings have gone 9-4 in March, with Fox taking another step toward stardom, averaging 30.0 points, 6.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.8 steals. He is second in the NBA in scoring this month, trailing only Brooklyn Nets star Kyrie Irving, who is averaging 30.1 points per game.

Kings coach Luke Walton is often asked about Fox's ascendance this season after some early struggles in Sacramento.

"You learn from failures more than you do from success," Walton said. "With De'Aaron, I say it all the time, we put a lot of responsibility on him. He's a young point guard playing the toughest position in the NBA and I think he's doing a hell of a job with it. This is part of becoming a star, becoming a leader, is going through the experience of putting guys and teams on your back at times, especially when you're down."

Buddy Love — Buddy Hield has produced encouraging numbers since moving to the small forward spot in a three-guard lineup, and we're not just talking about his shooting percentages.

Yes, Hield's 3-point shooting has improved from 32.5% in February to 42.6% in March, but there is progress to report on the defensive end as well. Hield's defensive rating over the past eight games (112.6) was 5.5 points better than his season mark of 118.1. His opponent's field-goal percentage was down slightly from 49.5% to 48.9% and his opponent's 3-point percentage was down from 38.9% to 36.6%. The most striking difference is seen in his opponent's plus/minus, which has gone from plus-2.3 on the season to minus-7.0 over the past eight games.

Hield gives up some size at small forward, but Kings general manager Monte McNair noted he is strong enough "to handle some of those bigger wings as needed." Time will tell if Hield is truly better suited to defend small forwards or if the Kings are simply better equipped to cover for each other's mistakes with Fox, Haliburton and Hield in the starting lineup. Either way, it's working.

"So far this year, those three guys playing together has been fantastic," McNair said. "Those lineups have consistently won and so that's been really encouraging to see."

Double trouble — Holmes has posted 19 double-doubles this season, including four in the last five games and nine in the last 12. He is averaging 17.6 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in March, up from 13.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in February.

Holmes had 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting with 12 rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots in Monday's win over the Spurs. His efficiency has been remarkable. He is first in the NBA in two-point field-goal percentage (.655), second in field-goal percentage (.647), third in true shooting percentage (.679) and fourth in offensive rating (132.8) and effective field-goal percentage (.649). Holmes is highly motivated as he approaches a big payday free agency this summer. The Kings will have to clear significant salary cap space in order to resign Holmes, but the 27-year-old center wants to stay and Walton doesn't want to see him go.

"I've been so impressed with Richaun since he got here," Walton said. "We brought him in as kind of an insurance policy, and from Day 1 when he got here, his work ethic, every opportunity he was given, he took full advantage of. He fought and earned a starting spot and he's just never given it back. He does it by playing winning basketball. He does it by playing with winning effort. And when our team is having success, he's usually a pretty big part of that."