Seeing red again — finally
County official warns we could go back to purple without proper precautions
Thanks to new guidelines set forth by the state, San Joaquin County has finally returned to the red tier of the California Department of Health’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy.
Dr. Maggie Park, San Joaquin County Public Health Officer, told supervisors Tuesday that because test positivity and health equity rates had qualified for the orange tier the past two weeks, the county has been allowed to advance to the red tier.
The county’s test positivity rate has been less than 4.9% for two weeks, and its health equity rate has been less than 5.3%.
However, the county’s new case rate has remained slightly above the 10 per 100,000 residents needed to qualify for the red tier.
Park said if the county’s case rate increases to more than 15 per 100,000 residents and remains there for two weeks, the county will return to the purple tier.
In addition, if the county’s test positivity metric moves back into the red and stays there for two weeks, the county will move to the purple tier, she said.
She said there is a “real possibility” the county could return to the purple in the future.
“I think many people are beginning to understand we have to keep driving our case rate down,” she said. “And we can do that by living well. People can live well if they stay home and isolate, caring for others, and continuing to get tested and vaccinated.”
According to Park, 35% of the county’s population have been vaccinated. She said once the state allows all residents to get vaccinated next week, those numbers should increase rapidly.
However, she cautioned supervisors that the county could experience a fourth surge in COVID-19 cases, as nine residents have contracted the U.K. variant of the virus, of which one is a minor.
She said the vaccines being administered throughout the state are “mostly” effective against the U.K. variant.
In recent weeks, Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, has warned various media outlets that the country could experience a fourth wave of cases over the next month due to daily case averages increasing.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of daily new infections has been between 50,000 and 60,000.
On Monday, ABC News reported that the opening of an indoor bar in rural Illinois in February led to 46 COVID-19 infections, the closure of one school and the hospitalization of a long-term care facility resi
dent.
While it is unknown how many people attended the Feb. 3 reopening, the CDC found four people had COVID-19-like symptoms on the day they attended.
Two weeks later, 26 patrons and three staff members at the bar tested positive for the virus. There were 17 secondary cases linked to the bar, including a dozen in eight households with children, according to the CDC.
An investigation found the bar had no outside airflow, and consistent mask use and social distancing were not enforced, the CDC said.
In San Joaquin County, Park said cases and hospitalizations seem to be declining. As of Monday, there were 58 people being treated for COVID-19 in seven hospitals, down from 64 reported last Thursday.
There were 19 people begin treated in an intensive care unit Monday, of which 12 were on ventilators, she said.
“We’ve had a nice decline from our winter surge,” she said. “Right now, we’re experiencing 50 to 150 cases a day. I would have liked to see that curve flatten out, but it has not. But, this is a little better than what we were seeing back in September, before the winter surge.”
Moving to the red tier will allow outdoor gatherings of as many as 25 people, but indoor gatherings are discouraged unless modifications are implemented.
Private outdoor events will be limited to 50 people, or 200 if all guests have proof of being tested or vaccinated.
Places of worship can operate indoors at 25% maximum capacity; retail stores can allow 50% capacity inside; movie theaters can open with 25% capacity or 100 people, whichever is less; and restaurants can allow 25% capacity or 100 people.
Wineries, breweries and distilleries can open outdoors, but reservations will be required and guests will be limited to a 90-minute stay. Establishments must close by 8 p.m. as well. Bars are not allowed to open if they do not serve food.
The county’s new case rate is 10.1 per 100,000 residents per day, and its test positivity rate is 4.0%. Its health equity rate is 3.4%.
San Joaquin County is now one of 22 counties in the red tier. There are 32 counties in the orange tier, while Sierra and Alpine counties are in the yellow, least restrictive tier.
Merced and Inyo counties remained in the purple tier.
“I’m very happy for our businesses that have been waiting to open, and for the activities that people want to do,” Park said. “The next step for us is to think about going to the orange tier.”
To advance to the orange tier, the county’s new case rate must be less than 5.9 cases per 100,00 residents a day, and its test positivity and health equity rates must remain stable for the next three weeks.
However, that may all change in the coming weeks, as Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Tuesday that California may completely reopen its economy if vaccine supply is sufficient for residents 16 and older, and if hospitalization rates are stable and low.
When the state completely reopens, the Blueprint for a Safer Economy will end. Health measures such as masking will remain in effect, though, he said.