Why won’t Gavin Newsom declare a drought? Recall puts him in tough spot

OROVILLE — Gov. Gavin Newsom stood on a boat ramp at Lake Oroville on Tuesday — a boat ramp that couldn’t reach the water because the reservoir was nearly 60% empty — and acknowledged what many Californians already know.

“We’re in the second year of these drought conditions,” he said.

But Newsom, who was in Oroville to sign a bill appropriating $536 million in wildfire-prevention funds, said he isn’t ready to declare an official drought emergency, as his predecessor did six years ago. Instead, he promised he can manage the situation without resorting to an emergency declaration, which could help his administration clamp down on water use.

“We are on top of this; we are mindful of the urgency,” he said.

A drought declaration could be politically fraught for Newsom, who faces a likely recall election later this year. By imposing strict rules on consumption, he could anger pandemic-weary voters, who might bristle if told to scale back on watering their lawns — something that happened during the last drought emergency.

“The recall is on his mind with anything he does,” said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California. “I’m not saying it will impact what he does about a drought, but I think it impacts how he talks about the drought.”

But if Newsom is reluctant to make a declaration now, some experts say he could actually help himself politically by acting sooner. If an official emergency convinces Californians to conserve water, that would save the governor from having to take more drastic, unpopular steps later, said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego.

“I think everything that this governor does under the cloud of the recall is interpreted as him playing a political game,” Kousser said. “I think it’s more likely he’s playing a policy game here.”

Water experts say there are legitimate reasons to avoid declaring a drought emergency. Among other things, declaring an emergency too soon could make it harder to persuade Californians to conserve if the drought drags on for multiple years.

The Democratic governor is hearing from elected officials who want him to declare an emergency now, with some of the loudest voices coming from parched rural California. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has already declared a drought in California, making every farmer in the state eligible for federal disaster relief.

“The metrics, science and data, including those put forward by the Biden administration, indicate we are in an emergency situation,” said state Sen. Andreas Borgeas, R-Fresno, who is among a bipartisan group of 11 lawmakers who recently urged him to declare an official drought. “We need a sustainable plan.”

Potential criticism of a drought declaration could be on Newsom’s mind, Borgeas said.