USDA projects record California almond crop, but water is a concern

A federal agency Wednesday forecast a record harvest of 3.2 billion pounds of almonds in California.

That would be a 3% increase over 2020 for the nuts, the highest-grossing crop in Stanislaus and several other counties.

The report will set the tone for the global almond trade, since California accounts for about 80% of the supply. Several thousand people work on farms and in processing plants in the Central Valley.

The estimate came from a telephone survey of about 500 growers between April 19 and May 6 by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, part of the USDA.

It will update the projection July 12, after visiting orchards to measure and weigh the maturing nuts. The harvest runs from August through October.

The first estimate brought cautious optimism at the Almond Board of California, based in Modesto.

"Water availability will be the principal concern on growers' minds as they continue to grow this crop," President and CEO Richard Waycott said in a news release.

A second straight dry winter has cut water deliveries as low as 5% in parts of the Central Valley. Irrigation districts in and near Stanislaus County are faring better because of reservoir storage.

The 3% increase in the almond harvest would be much more gradual than the 22% jump from 2019 to 2020. That sent the average price to growers down to $1.83 per pound, the lowest since 2010, the agency said.

The average price got as high as $4 in 2014, but that could not last without driving some of the buyers away. Most of the crop is sold to companies that use them in candy, cereal, ice cream, baked goods and other products.

NASS estimated an average yield of 2,410 pounds per acre this year, down 3% from 2020. Total acreage rose to 1.33 million, resulting in the projected crop of 3.2 billion pounds.

The report said pollination by rented bee colonies was strong overall despite rain, hail and wind in early March.

"Excellent growing conditions in April benefited the crop's development, and disease pressure was low," the report added.