Redistricting is a wild card for House members setting sights on 2022
When the Indiana legislature was drawing a new congressional map 10 years ago, Democrat Joe Donnelly imagined about eight potential configurations of his new House district.
“I wanted to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best,” he recalled in a recent phone interview. “Preparing for the worst was the right thing to do.”
Under the new Indiana lines, released in April 2011, Donnelly’s already competitive district would become significantly more Republican. He launched what would become a successful campaign for Senate the following month, a few days after the state legislature enacted the new congressional map.
Unlike Donnelly, House members weighing runs for higher office in 2022 may be forced to launch their campaigns before they know what their new seats will look like. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, census data that states need to redraw districts is not expected until the end of September, at least six months later than it was delivered in 2011.
A handful of House members are considering running for Senate or governor in states that are either losing or gaining a House seat, where the congressional maps will change drastically. But waiting to launch a campaign for higher office until new maps are revealed could mean losing critical months of fundraising and organizing.
The census data delay could affect candidates in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio, which are all due to lose a House seat, and in Florida and North Carolina, which are gaining a seat each.
Florida Democrat Val B. Demings, who is weighing a run for Senate or governor, said off the House floor Tuesday that she will not wait for the new map.
“I’m going to be working, whether I stay in the House or run for statewide office, to make Florida a fairer state to live,” Demings said.
“So I will not be waiting to see. And if they redraw my district, I’m going to do what I’ve always done and … maybe do a little bit harder work to get things done and to win.”
If states in this redistricting cycle follow timelines similar to those in the last one, in 2011 and 2012, the new maps may not become available until shortly before many candidate filing deadlines, said Sandra Chen, a researcher at the Princeton Gerrymandering Project.
“These delays are definitely unprecedented,” she said. “A lot of states have been scrambling to figure out what they’re going to do.”
In Pennsylvania, Democrats Conor Lamb and Chrissy Houlahan are seriously considering running for Senate, while Republican Dan Meuser is reportedly considering running for governor. Lamb said Wednesday that redistricting is “not impacting my decision at all” and that he would not be waiting for the new map to decide.
Ten years ago, Pennsylvania state legislators released a draft map nine months after receiving the census data. Should the data this cycle not be released until Sept. 30, lawmakers would have less than six months to come up with a map before the candidate filing deadline of March 9, 2022.
Illinois Republican Adam Kinzinger has said he could run for Senate or governor if he loses his House seat in redistricting. Another Illinois Republican, Rodney Davis, has also been mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate.