Storm warning in effect for Florida ahead of system likely to become Tropical Storm Alex

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — South Florida remains under a tropical storm warning Friday afternoon as the National Hurricane Center watches development of the low pressure system in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that is expected to become Tropical Storm Alex as it gets closer to the state.

The Hurricane Center said aircraft data indicates the system has changed little in the past several hours, and South Florida could expect between 4 and 8 inches of rain with some isolated areas getting as much as 12 inches of rain. On Friday afternoon the hurricane center said heavy rains are spreading across South Florida and western Cuba as the system moves slowly to the northeast.

Despite the expected heavy rainfall and potential for flooding, the South Florida Water Management District said the region is prepared to handle the storm.

“Our grounds are not overly saturated at this point,” said Randy Smith, spokesman for the SFWMD. “We’re in a really good situation, not that you ever want a storm of 8 to 12 inches of rain. But if you had the scenario that’s probably best to handle it, we’re probably there right now.”

The National Hurricane Center, in its 2 p.m. Friday update, kept half of the state under the Tropical Storm Warning with a growing system expected to become Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of 2022.

The disturbance has sustained tropical-stormforce winds of 40 mph, and is located about 395 miles southwest of Fort Myers and about 150 miles northnortheast of Cozumel, Mexico, while moving northeast at 5 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend 70 miles outward.

“Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,” the hurricane center said.

The system has yet to organize its circulation to be a named storm.

“On the forecast track,” the hurricane center said, “the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.”

The Tropical Storm Warning now runs on the Gulf Coast from the middle of Longboat Key on the Sarasota-Manatee County border south, including all of the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas, and then along Florida’s east coast to the Brevard-Volusia County line as well as Lake Okeechobee.

Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Keys this afternoon and continue through Saturday. Those areas could see up to 12 inches of rain and may produce considerable flash flooding.

All of South Florida remains under a flood watch from midnight Friday through Sunday morning, the National Weather Service Miami said.

The hurricane center predicted the system’s wind speeds will reach a maximum of 50 mph by Sunday evening.