The 3rd-Quarter Warriors are legendary. But the 4th-Quarter Warriors are killing them
BOSTON — The Warriors were cooking. After trailing big, early, Golden State had pulled back to even with the Celtics at TD Garden — even taking a one-point lead for a few seconds — with another incredible third-quarter run.
They were poised to not just make a game out of Wednesday’s contest — they looked prime to steal it. And then it all fell apart. What happened?
Another great third quarter was upended by another bad fourth quarter for the Warriors in these NBA Finals.
The Warriors’ third quarters have a mythical status after all these years and have been, frankly, the only reason the Warriors have been competitive in this series.
Through three games of the NBA Finals, the Warriors are plus-43 on the Celtics — the second-best thirdquarter team in the league this past season. That’s a 14-point advantage a night.
But the Celtics are now plus-40 in the fourth quarter.
Which would you rather be? Is it any surprise Boston is up 2-1?
The Warriors’ fourth-quarter problems contain multitudes.
In Game 1, it was the Dubs’ second unit that torpedoed them. Jordan Poole and company allowed a quick 7-0 run to Boston with Steph Curry on the bench to start the frame, and when the Warriors put Curry back in the game, the Celtics countered with Al Horford at center.
With the Warriors’ rotation all out of whack and Boston knocking down every shot they saw, Boston won the fourth quarter of the all-important Game 1 by 24 points.
The Warriors were chasing going into Game 2, but their 21-point thirdquarter win was enough to guarantee Curry could spend the entire fourth quarter on the bench.
Then, on Wednesday, the Warriors only won the third quarter by eight points in Game 3, and Boston countered by winning the fourth by 12.
This time, it was Curry at the helm from the start of the frame. Warriors coach Steve Kerr, remembering the start of the fourth quarter in Game 1, played the Poole-led, second-unit minutes in the final three of the third quarter of Game 3. The Celtics might have regained some offensive momentum, but the Warriors’ lead didn’t change for that stretch.
But Curry’s rotation change didn’t help the Dubs. After all, he can help his team lose a game, too. Golden State had five turnovers in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter to put the game in Boston’s hands.
There’s a larger issue at play here. Literally.
The NBA playoffs — and specifically, the Finals — are all about wing players.
For the millionth time, wings’ versatility win titles. You want the biggest, strongest, and longest players on the court late, because in the fourth quarter of big games, the pace naturally slows. The game becomes a close-quarters battle.
And in that environment, a wing like Jayson Tatum — 6-foot-10, and can get to any spot he wants on the floor off the dribble and knock down a shot — or Jaylen Brown — 6-foot-7, but with the same ability — can do their best work.
Tatum was massive in the fourth quarter of Game 3. He was downright ruthless on the offensive end.
Meanwhile, the Warriors could only create three shots near the rim from their half-court offense in the competitive minutes of the fourth quarter. One was Poole’s dribbling escapade that resulted in a nifty reverse layup. The other two were blocked.
In all, Tatum and Brown scored or assisted on 17 of Boston’s 23 fourthquarter points in Game 3.
Wiggins and Thompson were good for five points, total.
Wings win in the fourth.
This is why the Warriors need the third to be a blowout frame.
The third quarter is an open run, compared to the fourth. It’s naturally loose, and Golden State is equipped to compound small adjustments from halftime into big advantages because they can still get out and run — defense turning into offense.
The Warriors have played some slow teams this postseason, but they have played at a 96-possession pace in the third quarter throughout the playoffs. In the fourth quarter, that drops to a 93-possession pace.
These Finals, through three games, have shown an even steeper final-frame drop-off: The Celtics and Warriors have played at a 94-possession pace in the third quarter. In the fourth, they’re at 87.
Compare the pace of the fourth quarter to that of the fastest frame — the first — in these Finals, and it’s 13 percent slower.
That difference makes a world of difference for the Warriors, who cannot rely on one player to take over the game by beating his man one-onone off the dribble.
No, the Warriors need to run an actual offense — in this case, a high pick-and-roll with Curry or Poole. But against a defense that has fourth-quarter intensity and switches everything, it’s easier to be jammed in the final frame. We saw it again and again and again in Game 3.
Now, the Warriors still picked up some good looks in the fourth quarter Wednesday. They were far from the hoop, but they were clean.
They just didn’t fall. Brass tacks: that was the difference in the frame.
But the Warriors are playing a high-variance game in the quarter where you want sure bets. Half of the Celtics’ eight makes in the fourth quarter in Game 3 came inside of five feet.
The Dubs can’t change personnel now and no one is getting any taller. This is the team that brought them to the Finals — this is the squad that will have to win three of the next four to raise another banner.
But they need to find a way to be much better in the fourth quarter.
Does that mean a full fourth of Curry?
Probably.
But would that take away from the third, as it did Wednesday? Seems likely to me.
The real problem comes in the fact that Poole must play if Curry is off the floor. He is the only other member of the team who can run the pick-and-roll offense the Dubs need to utilize against Boston. There is no reasonable alternative on the Warriors’ roster.
Save for just playing Curry every minute of the second half.
But that solution likely cannot be entertained with the guard’s new foot injury.
Poole’s sketchy play in these Finals is hardly the Warriors’ only reason for being down 2-1, but when it comes to rotations, it is Kerr’s No. 1 issue in this championship series. Instead of thriving with the second unit, the Warriors are just trying to survive. That’s a dangerous game to play against a team as good as Boston.
It might even cede the emotional upper hand in this series to them.