California survey: Hot-button issues may spark voter turnout
SAN DIEGO — Despite low turnout in California’s June primary elections, key world events such as abortion rights and the potential for war with Russia could spur greater voter participation in November, according to a voter survey by UC San Diego.
The survey, “Looking Ahead to November; How Will Reproductive Rights, Crime Rates and Top Two Dynamics Shape California’s General Election?” was conducted by researchers with the Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research at UC San Diego, who asked nearly 3,000 Californians this month about their plans and preferences for the November General Election.
The survey, released Tuesday, noted low statewide turnout of about 30% in the June primary election. Midterm and primary elections typically have low participation rates, but this year California was well below the 2018 primary, which drew 37.5% turnout.
That suggests voter disengagement and apathy, the authors concluded, particularly among those not registered with a political party. Only 45.9% of independent voters said they will definitely vote in November, compared to 77.6% of Republicans and 73.4% of Democrats. Moreover, 11.8% of independent voters said they definitely won’t vote, while only 3.6% of Republicans and 4.6% of Democrats don’t plan on voting.
That changed, however, after the researchers asked survey respondents to read a few paragraphs of an article either about a possible U.S. abortion ban or potential war with Russia. In either case, exposure to key national or international issues galvanized survey participants, boosting those who said they planned to vote from an overall rate of 65.7% of respondents to 76.5% for those reading the article about abortion rights and 74.6% among those who read about war with Russia.
The group most affected was independents, whose intention to vote soared more than 20 points after reading the news stories, with 69.5% of those who read the abortion article and 69% of those who read about Russia responding afterward that they definitely planned to vote.
“This very simple exposure to a news article seemed to motivate people, especially independents,” said Thad Kousser, chair of political science at UC San Diego and one of the survey’s authors.
Democrats, the study found, were particularly motivated by reading about changes to abortion rights, while Republicans’ voting plans were most affected by the news story about conflict with Russia.
Republicans, he said, appear motivated to take back Congress in November, but Democrats were somewhat less enthusiastic about the election.