Weather shift may ease fire risk up north

Remnants of Marie could bring moisture to scorched regions.

Extended weather outlooks are providing some hope for fire-scorched Northern California.

Weather models are starting to show greater agreement on the possibility of moisture making its way into Northern California by later this week, the National Weather Service said.

The weather service said that more details resulting in increased confidence in the forecast could emerge in the coming days.

“It looks like a dramatic dip in the jet stream pattern,” said climatologist Bill Patzert. “For much of the summer, the jet stream has shunned the West Coast, resulting in record temperatures from Seattle to San Diego. [This] week it should dip southward into the Pacific Northwest and perhaps Northern California.”

In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s precipitation outlooks covering the period from Wednesday through Oct. 15 favor abovenormal chances of precipitation in Northern California.

Moisture from what is now Hurricane Marie may move into Central and Northern California this week. Marie was intensifying at about 15 degrees north latitude and 120 degrees west longitude, southwest of Baja California on Thursday. The storm was moving to the northwest and was expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters.

‘Even if it doesn’t bring rainfall, it will drop temperatures and increase humidity to the delight of firefighters.’ — Bill Patzert, climatologist

By this week the remnant of the storm would be a cutoff low, which would make its movements hard to predict.

“The great wet hope for the West Coast is the interaction between remnants of Hurricane Marie and the cold jet stream coming out of the North Pacific,” Patzert said. Forecasters will be watching developments in the days ahead. “Even if it doesn’t bring rainfall, it will drop temperatures and increase humidity to the delight of firefighters,” he said.

As the U.S. Drought Monitor data released Thursday indicate, extreme drought expanded in parts of Northern California and neighboring states.

So if any rain falls, it would dampen areas that could really use the relief, especially with major fires still burning and red-f lag fire warnings posted from north of the San Francisco Bay Area to the Central Coast.

Elsewhere in the West, the Drought Monitor reported new areas of exceptional drought appearing or expanding in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.

The monsoon season in the Southwest ended in record territory. For example, in Tucson, 6.08 inches of rain would be normal for the season from June through September. This year, only 1.62 inches fell. That makes it the second-driest monsoon on record.

The movement of the jet stream should push high pressure over the Great Basin farther east.

The shift in the jet stream provides a glimmer of hope for the West Coast.

“At a minimum, it will be a taste of fall and a welcome relief from all the hot, dry weather news of the last three months,” Patzert said.