Testing New Jersey’s shift to left
TRENTON, N.J. — Paid sick leave. Taxpayerfunded community college. A phased-in $15 minimum wage.
New Jersey has made a decidedly liberal shift under first-term Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, increasing income taxes on the wealthy, expanding voting rights and tightening its already restrictive gun laws. It’s a notable change from his predecessor, Republican Chris Christie, who spent two terms pushing more centrist policies.
Murphy’s agenda will be on the ballot Nov. 2, when voters must either give him a second term or change the state’s direction by electing Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
New Jersey hasn’t reelected a Democrat as governor in four decades and hasn’t elected a governor from the president’s party in three decades.
“It’s one of the big, animating reasons why we’re running like we’re 10 points behind .... History has proven that this can be a very fickle year in terms of politics,” Murphy said.
But Murphy has some advantages. He leads in polls and has raised more money than Ciattarelli, and New Jersey has 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans. He’s also welcoming party heavy-hitters to the state: former President Obama campaigned for him Saturday, and President Biden is visiting Monday.
The race has national implications. A loss for Murphy would be shocking after Biden beat Donald Trump by nearly 16 points there last year. It would also raise questions about whether moderate voters repelled by Trump were returning to the GOP.
New Jersey’s left turn has been years in the making: The state has voted Democratic in every presidential contest since 1992. It hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. But governor’s races have been in play for the GOP. The last three Republican governors have won two consecutive terms.
“To win as a Republican, you’ve got to be focused on what it is that’s bothering the people of New Jersey, and that’s exactly what I’ve done,” Ciattarelli said.
Voters have given Murphy high grades for his response to COVID-19, even though New Jersey was one of the hardest-hit states early in the pandemic. Murphy held daily news conferences on the pandemic at the beginning and now holds two a week. He ordered most nonessential businesses to shut down early on. Masks were required and social distancing was encouraged. Schools closed and then went mostly remote.
Some Republicans worry Trump’s unpopularity could be hurting Ciattarelli. Since a bruising June primary with rivals who claimed Trump’s mantle, Ciattarelli has sounded more like the moderate he was while in the Legislature, speaking about his support for Roe vs. Wade and for immigrants without legal status getting driver’s licenses, for instance.
He plays up his credentials as an accountant and small-business founder while campaigning in Democratic-leaning cities and GOP strongholds.
Ciattarelli has also had to balance the GOP’s traditional wing with the Trump faction. That’s meant calling for lower property taxes and decrying COVID-19 restrictions. It has also meant confronting questions about his appearance at a rally centered on “Stop the Steal,” a reference to Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Ciattarelli said he didn’t know the rally was focused on those claims.
Asked whether he would welcome Trump campaigning for him, Ciattarelli said he does his own campaigning and isn’t “into endorsements.” He has also said he accepts that Biden was legitimately elected.
New Jersey’s political environment shifted to the left during the Trump administration, with Democrats picking up all but one House seat there in 2018. They lost a second seat when Jefferson Van Drew switched parties over Trump’s first impeachment. Murphy himself won election in the first year of Trump’s presidency, running on a self-styled progressive platform with help from the unpopularity of Christie, whose top lieutenant ran against Murphy in the 2017 race.
“It is very tough for a candidate ... if the wind is not blowing at your back,” said the state General Assembly’s GOP leader, Jon Bramnick. “And in New Jersey, the wind is blowing definitely more Democratic.”
Shavonda Sumter, a Democratic Assembly member and chair of the Legislative Black Caucus, said the push for more progressive policies such as early voting and expanded mail voting began at least a decade ago. Those policies, vetoed by Christie, became law after
Murphy became governor.
Sumter sees the turning point as 2020’s national reckoning on racial injustice after a Minneapolis police officer murdered George Floyd. She said white people’s increased consciousness of the role race can play in politics has helped Democrats.
“Folks woke up and realized this fight is not done,” she said.
For Toby Sanders, a Trenton resident who attended a recent Murphy gun control rally in Bloomfield, the governor’s contest is more than just a state race.
“It’s a bellwether for the nation. It’s a foundation to build on,” said Sanders, a progressive.
For many other voters, state and local issues are more important.
Mike Gardner, a municipal party official and retired attorney, said his top issue is getting rid of high property taxes. He backs Ciattarelli.
Jim Arakelian, a real estate agent and retired law enforcement official, doesn’t think police have been respected by Murphy’s administration, citing the decision to release certain police disciplinary records. He’s also skeptical about the media and polling, citing Trump’s surprise 2016 victory.
“Polls can be skewed anyway the press wants,” said Arakelian, who attended a Ciattarelli event in New Milford.
Some Democrats are also skeptical of polls, not wanting to take them for granted.
“America is contested space right now,” Sanders said. “There is a battle quietly and loudly going on.”