U.S. could default as soon as Oct. 22, group says

WASHINGTON — The federal government will be unable to pay all its bills and face default as early as Oct. 22 and no later than Nov. 1 if the debt limit is not raised, according to an analysis released Tuesday by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

The think tank, which closely tracks the debt-limit issue, had earlier estimated that the date for a potential default would be between Oct. 18 and Nov. 5.

Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew has warned Congress that the $16.7-trillion debt limit must be raised by Oct. 17 or the federal government would face default because it would be out of its so-called extraordinary measures for juggling the nation’s finances.

At that point, Lew said, the Treasury would have to depend on cash on hand of about $30 billion and incoming revenue to pay bills on any given day.

The new Bipartisan Policy Center estimate could give Congress more time to end a political stalemate and raise the debt limit before the government defaults.

The center’s analysis was based on major federal government payments scheduled at the end of October and early November. But the report warned that it was difficult to set an exact date when a default might occur because the daily f low of incoming revenue can vary by several billion dollars.

“No one can predict with absolute certainty the date and time when Treasury will have exhausted all its extraordinary measures and run out of cash on hand,” the report said. “Therefore, policymakers should not assume that they have until Oct. 22 to make decisions concerning the federal debt ceiling.”