Keep strong self-awareness
We often fantasize about a heroic call or a gutsy bluff. During a European Poker Tour no-limit hold ’em event in Malta this year, one crucial pot at the final table demonstrated this phenomenon.
The blinds were 50,000/ 100,000 with a 10,000 chip ante. Action folded to Valentin Messina on the button, who raised to 225,000. Dominik Panka called from the small blind with A ♠♣10 , and Jean Montury called from the big blind.
On a flop of 3 ♣♣6 10 ♠ , Panka had flopped top pairtop kicker and decided to lead with a bet of 325,000 into his two opponents. Montury, holding 5 ♠♠4 for an openended straight draw and backdoor flush draw, called, and Messina folded behind him.
When the turn brought the 7 ♥ , Montury had made his straight, but Panka continued with another bet of 650,000, now drawing dead to win the hand. Montury pondered for some time and eventually raised to 1,585,000. Panka decided that his hand was strong enough to continue and called.
On a 5 ♣ river that would have completed flush draws, both players checked, and Montury scooped a pot worth more than 4.5 million chips. Montury went on to win the tournament, earning 687,400 euros, his largest payout to date.
Panka made a serious misstep by calling Montury’s turn raise. Montury entered the hand passively, just overcalling from the big blind to play in the middle of two opponents, which is a strong indication of passivity.
So Panka could only have been reasonably ahead if Montury held a draw that felt strong on the turn — like A ♣ 4 ♣ for example, with an overcard, a nut flush draw, and a gutshot straight draw to boot. However, compared to hands that would have been directly improved by the turn card — such as 9-8, 5-4, 7-6, 7-7 and 10-7 suited — such draws were relatively unlikely.
This mistake could have been avoided if Panka had asked himself: “Could I be ahead of anything besides a bluff?” In this case, the answer was clearly no — and a bluff from Montury would have been a shock to see. Any time it’s clear that you will win only if your opponent has nothing, you had better be pretty confident that he does indeed have nothing. Never bank on the mere possibility that the other guy is bluffing, because if you do not feel sure of it, chances are good that you are just talking yourself into it.
Clever decision-making strategies are more appealing than simple ones, and heroic plays are more desirable than humdrum results. But when the tournament ends, the victor is often the one with the discipline and selfawareness to make the correct play every time — even when it is painful or boring.