Don’t underestimate the pro

Poker pros can be intimidating. Sitting across from Doyle Brunson, who has been plying his trade longer than the World Series of Poker has been in existence, or Phil Hellmuth, tournament poker’s most decorated player, would unnerve any amateur player. Even so, poker wisdom dictates that you shouldn’t overestimate them. After all, they’re just human beings who get two cards just like you.

While that’s true, I’m here to warn you against making the opposite mistake — underestimating a poker pro. Earlier this year, I did just that at a Mid-States Poker Tour event at the Venetian in Las Vegas.

The $1,100-buy-in main event attracted 1,964 entrants, creating a prize pool of nearly $1.9 million. I took my seat on Day 1 and discovered that Justin Zaki, a poker pro from Florida with more than $1.4 million in lifetime earnings, was sitting two seats to my right. We both started with 15,000 in chips.

In Level 2, with the blinds at 50/100, I misplayed a hand against Zaki that cost me my tournament life. It happened when I opened for 300 from early position with A♠ K♣. Four other players limped, and Zaki reraised to 1,800 from the big blind.

I anticipated the move, reasoning that a pro of his stature would view all the limps as weakness. It was a great spot for him to squeeze or steal the pot with a reraise. As such, I responded by four-betting to 4,400.

All the limpers folded, and Zaki paused a few moments before moving all in. Again, I thought it highly probable he would do this. Wouldn’t an accomplished pro interpret my four-bet as a defensive measure against a squeeze? If so, then a five-bet jam was the right move.

I convinced myself that I had it all figured out. The best-case scenario was that he was making a move with a hand I dominated — something like Ax Qx. The worstcase scenario, at least in my mind, was that he had a mid-pocket pair and we would be in a race situation.

Zaki snap-called and promptly tabled pocket aces, the one hand that had me crushed. In hindsight, his hand seems so obvious, but at the time I was intent on not overestimating him (i.e., giving him credit for a big hand). Instead, I ended up underestimating his holdings and busted after the board ran out a clean 2♣ 3♥ 7♦ 8♠ 10♣.

I wasn’t upset with how the hand played out. Like a lot of players I often lose big pots while holding ace-king. But I was disappointed with my thought process, which was clearly was tainted.

I let an external factor — in this case, Zaki’s status as a well-known pro — determine how I played the hand. Of course, such information is important and should be taken into consideration, but you can’t let it blind you to other pertinent factors. Just be careful.