Folding was too safe a move

I was recently providing commentary for Live at the Bike, an online stream of a live cash game played at the Bicycle Casino in Bell Gardens. One of the hands reminded me of a preflop mistake that I used to make when I first started playing, and in this hand the lesson from that mistake was misapplied in a post-flop decision.

When I first started playing poker regularly, my instincts were sharper than my tactics, and it was common for me to build a nice stack only to misplay one hand that would cost me much of it. I was playing a few too many pots for all of my or an opponent’s chips before the flop. The range of preflop risks vs. opponents’ holdings is just too wide compared with hand-range and risk reads that can be made later in hands.

With blinds at $5-$5, an experienced cash-game player — let’s call him Player X — opened for $25. Action folded to Player Y in late position, who reraised to $75. Player Y hadn’t been out of line yet that evening, so he seemed to have a fairly tight range of hands with which he’d reraise. Player X called.

The flop came 9♠ 4♠ 4♥. Player X bet $1,000.

Player Y held K♦ K♥. What should he have done?

The hole camera wasn’t reading Player X’s hand, so it was a mystery. Even in the commentary booth, we had no idea what he held.

It’s worth noting that Y had been playing a great game, and in my opinion he was better than the rest of the table. When that’s the case and you face a similar decision preflop, it’s easier to find a fold.

For example, let’s say you hold Q-Q, and your opponent four-bets all in for $1,000 over your reraise of $75. Barring further information on your opponent, according to the valuable lessons of conservancy from my poker youth, I’d recommend folding. The range with which an opponent would over-shove $1,000 in a $5-$5 no-limit game is filled with hands that Q-Q does not dominate, so if you’re better than the rest of the table, save the $1,000 and use it to make smaller, wiser decisions as the game plays on.

The flop helps to define people’s hands more clearly, as an entirely new set of data and decisions is introduced. In this case, the $1,000 shove for seven times the amount of the pot should be called, because the preflop information adds to the flop information and narrows the possibilities of hands held. The chances that Player X was holding an idle 4 were slim to none because of the out-of-position preflop raise and call that Player X made. Player Y should also know that a hand better than his kings would likely check in an attempt to gain more profit.

Player X likely had a f lush draw at best, and a dominated hand with two outs at worst. Even though it was a $1,000 bet with only $150 in the pot, Player Y needed to call.

Player Y, perplexed, opted to fold. It was a safe decision, but in my opinion it was too safe a decision.

Player X showed his flush-draw bluff, and the table had quite a conversation as he scooped the pot.

When the read is so specific, the likelihood of being behind is so small, and the likelihood of being ahead is so big, the call has to be made. You have to take risks to win, and all the better when the risk is calculated.