‘ Civil War’ to kick off summer season
The latest Marvel adventure is expected to gross more than $ 200 million in debut.
For weeks, superhero fans have aligned themselves with either Team Captain America or Team Iron Man ahead of the release of the latest Marvel adventure. And whoever prevails on the big screen, there’s one surefire winner — Walt Disney Co.
“Captain America: Civil War,” produced by the Disney- owned comic book powerhouse Marvel Studios, is on track to become the biggest movie of the year, providing a powerful kickoff for the summer blockbuster season and extending the Burbank entertainment giant’s box- office winning streak.
The $ 250- million picture, which pits two of Marvel’s most popular characters against each other in an epic struggle, is expected to gross more than $ 200 million in the U. S. and Canada from its opening weekend, people who have reviewed pre- release audience surveys said.
If it tops $ 208 million, the movie would replace 2012’ s “The Avengers” as the biggest- ever debut for a Marvel movie. Any higher and it may pass last year’s “Jurassic World” for the secondlargest f ilm opening of all time, behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”
“It’s the best thing that could happen to set the stage and the tone for a great summer,” said Paul Dergarabedian, a senior box- office analyst for the data f irm ComScore.
That would be welcome news for a movie industry that faces an uphill battle to match the big numbers from
last summer. Movies generated $ 4.48 billion from May 1 through Labor Day last year in the U. S. and Canada. Analysts have remained doubtful that Hollywood can top that tally this time around.
Shares of movie theater chains took a hit on Wall Street last week when executives warned that the studios’ new movies may not match last year’s summer hits such as “Furious 7” and “Jurassic World.”
The upcoming months include major studio gambles, including Universal Pictures’ video game adaptation “Warcraft,” 20th Century Fox’s “Independence Day” sequel, Warner Bros.’ “The Legend of Tarzan” and Sony Pictures’ “Ghostbusters.” Even Disney has some relatively risky offerings — namely Steven Spielberg ’s “The BFG” and the live- action remake of the 1977 fantasy “Pete’s Dragon.”
“All of these f ilms could go either way,” said box- off ice analyst Bruce Nash of Nash Information Services. “Whether any of them can turn into $ 300- million to $ 400- million hits is a big question.”
What is certain is that “Civil War” will give a boost to movie tickets sales in the U. S. and Canada. The industry is coming off a strongerthan- expected start for the year, thanks to big movies like Fox’s “Deadpool” and Warner Bros.’ “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.” Movie ticket sales reached $ 3.6 billion through May 1, up 7.4% from the same time a year ago, according to ComScore.
Analysts are hedging their predictions, noting that some had expected a record summer turnout in 2015, though the results came up short of the $ 4.75billion benchmark set in 2013. Some experts said the industry could top last year if certain movies break out at the multiplexes, including the dark Warner Bros.- DC Entertainment film “Suicide Squad.”
Disney in particular has a robust schedule, including “Alice Through the Looking Glass” — a follow- up to the live- action “Alice in Wonderland” from 2010 that grossed more than $ 1 billion — and Pixar’s “Finding Nemo” sequel “Finding Dory.”
So far this year, Disney’s movies have accounted for about 25% of the total domestic box office, the highest of any studio. If “Civil War” does the expected level of sales, it will represent another success for Disney, which is riding high from back- to- back hits. The computer- animated “Zootopia” has racked up $ 932 million globally so far, while the company’s new version of “The Jungle Book” has sailed past $ 700 million. Both have a shot of eventually hitting the coveted $ 1- billion benchmark.
“I think the domestic box office has just decided to climb up on the shoulders of Disney and allow them to carry it forward,” said Barton Crockett, media analyst at FBR Capital Markets.
There are more promising omens for “Civil War.” According to Fandango, presales for the f ilm have outpaced every other superhero movie in the online ticket seller’s 16- year history, besting “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” and “Avengers: Age of Ultron.” Many showings are sold out.
Though technically a “Captain America” movie, “Civil War” is being marketed like the f irst two “Avengers” f ilms. Besides Robert Downey Jr.’ s Iron Man and Chris Evans’ title character, the new picture features Marvel heroes such as Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Don Cheadle’s War Machine and Paul Rudd’s Ant- Man. It also introduces Tom Holland as Spider- Man, a fact that was teased in the trailer.
“It’s featuring all these fantastic characters, and it’s playing more like an ‘ Avengers’ movie,” said Dave Hollis, head of distribution for Disney. The studio is projecting a more conservative estimate of about $ 175 million from the domestic opening.
Disney’s ambitions are paying off overseas, where “Civil War” has generated $ 224 million in ticket sales so far. It opens in China, Russia, Italy and India this week.
For the global marketing push, the studio played off the f ilm’s central internal struggle. Captain America-Steve Rogers and Iron ManTony Stark took their fictional teams on two competing global promotional tours, colliding at the f ilm’s London premiere.
Reviews have been largely favorable, indicated by a 93% positive rating on the movie review website Rotten Tomatoes. What’s more, there’s little competition on the immediate horizon. This weekend has no other wide openings, and next week’s highest- profile debut is Sony’s “Money Monster,” a thriller starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts.