Assess your opponent’s range

Today’s hand is from a $5,000-buy-in World Series of Poker event I played in Las Vegas this summer. With blinds at 100-200 plus a 25 ante, I looked down at A♠ A♣ and raised to 600 from under the gun.

A strong middle-aged player called from middle position, as did the small blind and big blind, who were both reasonably good players.

The flop came K♥ 8♥ 2♦d. Both blinds checked, and I bet 1,500 into a pot of 2,625. Only the strong player in middle position called.

I thought his calling range was somewhat wide, including any pair (besides pocket pairs worse than middle pair) and all flush draws. I could discount K-K, 8-8 and 2-2 as possibilities, as those hands would have been obligated to raise the flop. K-8, K-2 and 8-2 were unlikely because those hands would not have called my initial preflop raise. This led me to believe that I was up against either a worse made hand or a flush draw.

The turn was the 3♠. Since this card was unlikely to improve my opponent to a better made hand than my pocket aces, and since I thought my opponent could easily call a turn bet with most pairs and any flush draw, I decided to bet 2,600. My opponent called.

The river was the 6♥. While it was unlikely that my opponent’s made hands improved on the river, he could have hit a flush draw. If I thought my opponent was the type of player who would call a small bet with top or middle pair, even after the arrival of an obviously scary card, I would have made a small bet of 4,000 or so. But since I thought highly of my opponent, I decided to check.

After some thought, he pushed all in for 11,275. That certainly wasn’t what I wanted to see.

I had to figure out my opponent’s river pushing range, which meant that I also had to figure out which hands he would check. Most players would not go all in with top pair in this situation, opting instead to check and win at the showdown most of the time. And there are few players who would turn a hand like 9-9 or 8-7 into a bluff, although some excellent players would (because those hands would be at the bottom of their range). There were few other hands in my opponent’s range that could be turned into a bluff, given that I wouldn’t expect my opponent to get to the river with an unpaired hand that didn’t improve to a flush.

Because of this, I decided to fold to my opponent’s allin bet. It’s certainly possible that he could have made a sophisticated bluff with top or middle pair, but I think he most likely had me beat.

It’s important to constantly assess your opponent’s range and determine how your hand fares against hands within that range. In this spot, I think folding was the only play that made sense.